Manchester City moved to the Premier League summit with a 5-1 win over Luton on Saturday and were handed a further advantage in the title race when Liverpool and Arsenal suffered surprise defeats on Sunday.
City sit two points clear, but with that margin separating three teams it remains the tightest title race at this stage of a season since 1998-99.
The combined results gave City a significant swing in the prediction models – with Opta now putting them at 70% favourites and Nielsen’s Gracenote at 76%.
“What it means for the title race, I am not dumb. The answer is pretty easy,” said Liverpool boss Jurgen Klopp after his side’s 1-0 defeat by Crystal Palace at Anfield.
Arsenal midfielder Declan Rice insisted he did not watch or even know the Liverpool score before the Gunners were beaten 2-0 by Aston Villa later on Sunday.
“I still think there will be plenty more twists and turns to go,” Rice added.
“We’re in a three-horse title race with two unbelievable sides but, as you’ve seen with other results today, the Premier League can throw up anything.
“Six finals to go in the Premier League and we’ll give it everything.”
Man City now firm favourites
Opta, with its 10,000 ‘supercomputer’ simulations, believes Manchester City’s dressing room is the place to be.
Following their rivals’ defeats, City are rated as having a 70.1% chance of lifting the trophy for a fourth time in a row – an increase of 29.5% before this weekend.
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Predicted Premier League final table – Opta |
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|---|---|---|
|
1. Man City |
70 |
1st – 73 points |
|
2. Arsenal |
18 |
2nd – 71 points |
|
3. Liverpool |
12 |
3rd – 71 points |
Gracenote estimates the probability of each match outcome – win, draw or loss – using their Euro Club Index and then simulates the rest of the season a million times to create the probabilities.
Gracenote head of analysis Simon Gleave said their projection had City moving from 45% to 76% favourites over the weekend.
|
Predicted Premier League final table – Gracenote |
||
|---|---|---|
|
1. Man City |
76 |
1st – 73 points |
|
2. Arsenal |
14 |
2nd – 71 points |
|
3. Liverpool |
10 |
3rd – 71 points |
Current table
|
Premier League |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1. Man City |
32 |
73 |
44 |
76 |
DDWWW |
|
2. Arsenal |
32 |
71 |
49 |
75 |
WDWWL |
|
3. Liverpool |
32 |
71 |
41 |
72 |
DWWDL |
|
If teams are level after 38 games, the title will be decided on goal difference, and if still level, goals scored |
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What are the remaining fixtures?
When were the other closest three-way title races?
There have been a handful of three-way Premier League title races where the teams have been similarly close towards the end of a 38-game season.
2013-14: By as late as 6 May 2014, only two points separated Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea. City won their game in hand to leapfrog a stumbling Liverpool and went on to snatch the title. Liverpool’s disappointment was characterised by Steven Gerrard’s famous slip in their 2-0 defeat against Chelsea and then Crystal Palace’s comeback from three goals down to draw 3-3.
2001-02: On 23 April 2002, Arsenal led Liverpool by a point with Manchester United a further point back. But Arsenal had a game in hand and were partway through a run of 11 consecutive wins. They sealed the title by beating United at Old Trafford.
1995-96: In mid-March, with eight games left, Manchester United were level on 61 points with Newcastle, and Liverpool were on 59 points in third. Despite having played two games more at the time, Sir Alex Ferguson’s side saw off the challenge of Kevin Keegan’s Magpies.
What happened at this stage last year?
What if the teams finish level on points?
Should there be a tie, the league is decided on goal difference, then goals scored, then most points in the head-to-head matches, then most away goals in the head-to-head record.
Whatever happens, don’t be too surprised if there are more twists and turns between now and the final day of the season on 19 May.
