SINGAPORE — As Lawrence Wong prepares to step into Singapore’s highest political office on 15 May, succeeding Lee Hsien Loong as Prime Minister, political experts foresee a potential early General Election (GE) later this year.
In an interview with Yahoo Southeast Asia, some political experts also suggest how Wong’s forthcoming leadership transition will likely tap on platforms, such as his upcoming swearing-in ceremony, National Day Rally (NDR), and the People’s Action Party (PAP) conference in November, to articulate his vision for the nation.
Is a general election expected in Singapore in 2024?
Associate Professor Eugene Tan from the School of Law at Singapore Management University (SMU) expressed surprise at Wong’s “accelerated timeline” for taking office.
He said in an interview with Yahoo on Wednesday (17 April), “It seems to suggest that they are in a bit of a hurry to have the GE, because the May handover means that two windows realistically open for a GE in 2024. One in September after NDR and the other in December after the party’s Central Executive Committee (CEC) elections.”
Assoc Prof Tan also discussed factors influencing the timing of the early GE, noting the ruling party’s advantage in selecting the date.
He said, “When ruling parties have the ability to choose the elections date , if let say, the election laws permit them, which Singapore does, they obviously want to choose the date that they think would be most favourable to them.”
Furthermore, he reflected on geopolitical and economic conditions, including recent events such as Iran’s missiles and drone attack on Israel and Wong’s recent meetings in Germany and France.
He questioned, “I wonder whether there is an assessment that the geopolitical situation globally and the economic outlook will go south, maybe even spiral downwards in the latter half of 2024.”
Assoc Prof Tan pointed out that regardless of whether the elections are scheduled for September or December, there is actually “not a lot of time”.
He also suggested that besides considering the international situation, there might be a strategy to surprise the opposition with a relatively earlier election by PAP standards.
Independent political observer Dr Felix Tan suggested that Wong might give himself at least six months to settle into his new role before considering a GE.
He explained, “When someone takes over a job, it takes about six months to get things going and to suss out whether they are heading in the right direction.”
Dr Tan said that if Wong were to wait six months from May, the earliest possible election date could be September. He also mentioned a potential indicator of the general election’s timing: the formation of the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee (EBRC).
This committee, comprised of senior civil servants with expertise in the field, recommends the boundaries of electoral divisions.
According to him, once the committee is formed, it would take a few months for them to produce a report, and then the election can take place.
The EBRC was last convened in August 2019, ahead of the General Election in July 2020. The White Paper on the Report of the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee 2020 was released in March 2020.
NDR a chance for Lawrence Wong to define his leadership
The experts also believe that Wong will leverage national events, such as the NDR in August, to define his agenda.
Dr Tan pointed out the political importance of the NDR as an opportunity for Wong to address pressing issues facing Singapore. He anticipates that Wong would use the platform to discuss the Forward Singapore agenda and address concerns regarding the economy and cost of living.
“Perhaps there’ll be a third area that will be discussed: what is the future of Singapore under this new leadership? What do we foresee in the next 10, perhaps 20 years?”
According to SMU’s Eugene Tan, the NDR speech has an important role in shaping public perception of Wong’s leadership.
Tan said, “The thing that could affect the PAP going to the GE will be whether Mr Wong’s first NDR can capture the imagination of the nation. Because if it doesn’t inspire a significant uptake in enthusiasm, excitement and anticipation for his premiership, then I think it’s going to be a tough ride.”
Furthermore, Tan addressed the challenge of Wong establishing himself as a leader, especially in light of the legacies left by previous Prime Ministers. Tan also noted that, unlike his predecessors, Wong had worked under Lee as a civil servant, serving as his principal private secretary.
Tan said it was key for Wong to show his ability to lead, adding: “It is important for Lawrence Wong to at least demonstrate that he is his own man. And I think, unfortunately, this is the fate that befalls all Singapore prime ministers when they first come onboard.
“What this also signals is that there would be 3G ministers in his cabinet after the GE, but it is because of the uniqueness of our system of leadership renewal. And the question always pops up: Will the PM be his own man?”
Tan highlighted the contrast with other political systems, such as the UK, where former Prime Ministers rarely join the cabinet of their successors.
He noted the exception of David Cameron, who served as a foreign secretary but lacked the influence of an elected politician.
He continued, “I think Singaporeans will ask, because you have 40 years in politics in Lee Hsien Loong. Many of the current policies, norms, and standards are closely associated with Lee Hsien Loong because of his 40 years in the corridors of power.
“And to me, the question of whether Lawrence Wong is his own man becomes a more pertinent one than his predecessors.”
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