Analysts at Citi said in a note Friday that the stronger March core PCE inflation data makes a July rate cut from the Federal Reserve more likely.
Core PCE inflation rose 0.32% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year in March.
The stronger annual increase was largely known yesterday with the release of first-quarter data, but the monthly increase in March was also stronger than Citi’s forecast, reflecting a pick-up relative to February.
“With just one month of inflation data for April before the June FOMC meeting, officials will likely have to wait until July to gain ‘greater confidence’ that inflation is slowing,” explained the bank.
“But we do still think that May and June data can provide that confidence,” they added. Citi now expects a first rate cut in July and 100 basis points of total cuts this year.
“If activity data, particularly labor market data, weaken in the next few releases, officials could still opt for a June cut,” stated Citi. “Spending data was strong in March, but strength in services looks increasingly vulnerable as it is increasingly supported by only a few sectors like health care.”
Elsewhere, analysts at Evercore ISI noted that while headline and core price deflators for March were as expected, estimates were revised up for January and February.
“Payroll employment should advance +200K in April and the unemployment rate should slip to 3.7%,” they wrote. “Average hourly earnings likely grew +0.3% m/m or 4.1% y/y. Next week’s ECI will be a dependable read for labor cost growth. We estimate a 1.0% gain in 1Q (or a 4.1% annual rate).”
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