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Why are economists warning of the growing impact of Brexit on Britain?

Why are economists warning of the growing impact of Brexit on Britain?

A report by Aston University Business School has found that many smaller producers in UK They gave up exporting small quantities to European Union After facing more rules and regulations.

Between 2021 and 2023, the study calculated that exports British goods To the European Union decreased by 27 percent, and imported goods decreased by 32 percent compared to what they would have been if Britain had not left the European Union, according to the report published by the BBC and reviewed by the Sky News Arabia Economy website.

The report does not include the sector. Serviceswhich has performed better than many experts had expected since Brexit.

The study found that the diversity of commercial export goods has also fallen, with the number of UK product types exported to each EU country falling by 1,645.

The study’s authors said that the reason for this is the abandonment of Producers Smaller Britons have been forced to stop exporting their goods to some EU countries after facing increased bureaucracy.

“It was very difficult to deal with all this regulatory burden,” Mary Quick of Quick’s Cheese in Devon told the BBC’s Today programme, adding that she was supplying four customers directly in European UnionBut “we had to give them to someone else,” she said. “We don’t have the people to do the paperwork.”

full stop

Adam Sofer, co-founder and CEO of Joe & Save Popcorn, also found that the regulations that followed the exit of Britain from European Union It is a huge burden.

Sofer, who founded the company 13 years ago and now has an £8m turnover and 70 staff, said Brexit was “very difficult at first. We were asked to get veterinary certificates for our caramel popcorn because it contains butter”.

Before Brexit, individuals, cinemas and retailers in the EU could order popcorn online and have it sent by Royal Mail or a courier service, but then “all of a sudden it all came to a halt”.

He added that Brexit had led to “a huge amount of extra costs due to extra administration”.

Bulk deliveries to the EU have recovered, but whereas they used to cost around £130 per pallet, they now cost between £230 and £250 due to Bureaucracy And mainly administrative fees. “There is a huge amount of growth opportunity if these rules are improved,” he added.

“The negative effects of the trade agreement have intensified over time, with 2023 showing more pronounced trade declines than previous years,” the report said.

There has been an increase in regulations such as “product standards, safety checks, and labeling requirements,” said John Doe, one of the study’s authors. “While these measures protect consumers, competition, and the environment, they also increasingly bring difficulties and costs to merchants.”

Food and textile industries

According to the study, it was Food industries Textiles and material manufacturing (wood and paper) are the most affected.

I was also affected commerce With countries further afield in the EU, including Commonwealth allies such as Cyprus and Malta.

However, the report’s authors say a small number of sectors have proven resilient, particularly in relation to exports to larger EU economies such as Germany And France.

The tobacco, railway and aircraft sectors saw an increase in diversity. Exports To the European Union countries.

A government spokesman said the government would “work to improve our trade and investment relationship with the EU and remove unnecessary trade barriers, recognising that there will be no return to Single Market Or the customs union or freedom of movement.”

Economic repercussions

From London, economic expert Nihad Ismail said, in exclusive statements to the Sky News Arabia Economy website, that Britain’s exit from the European Union led to tangible economic results, as British exports to the European Union decreased by 11 percent in 2023 compared to 2019 levels, while investments in the manufacturing, technology and finance sectors witnessed a decline of nearly 15 percent.

Ismail added that British economy It is expected to shrink by 4 percent over the next decade. He cited a report by the Center for European Reform, which indicated that losses to the British economy could exceed 311 billion pounds (more than $400 billion) by 2035. British families will also suffer losses of up to 1,100 pounds (about $1,400) per family over five years, with these estimates subject to adjustment depending on developments in the relationship between Britain and the European Union.

He explained that the effects Brexit It was very clear, pointing to the main reasons that led to these losses. The imposition of customs duties and complex inspection procedures, in addition to the increased need to fill out forms and heavy bureaucracy, forced many British companies to withdraw from trading with the EU. He pointed out that before Brexit, trade between Britain and Europe was smooth and fast, thanks to common standards and simple, hassle-free systems.

Ismail stressed that the Brexit deal review is scheduled to take place in 2026, so no positive developments in relations between Britain and the European Union are expected before that time. Until then, the challenges facing the British economy will remain large and complex.

In exclusive statements to the Sky News Arabia Economy website, Dr. Nidal Al-Shaar, Chief Economist at ACY, monitored the position of the British economy after Brexit through several main points. At first, he explained that the UK’s exit from the European Union was an exit from an organized market with specific rules, controls and tax systems, which led to the control of local bureaucracy over foreign trade systems. This shift revealed many problems that were not clear during the Kingdom’s membership in the Union.

He pointed out that the disruption in the volume of trade with the European Union was expected before the exit, but it was not as large as we are witnessing now. He added that the British services sector was not significantly affected by the exit from the European Union, but rather continued to grow since 2020, unlike the goods sector, which was severely affected.

The slogan also highlighted that the most affected by the new situation are small business owners who lack the necessary tools to confront the increasing bureaucracy, and were unable to bear the new burdens.

He stressed that the UK government is required to urgently negotiate with EU countries to reduce restrictions and controls on British products. He stressed that this negotiation may indicate an undeclared return to the EU, especially in light of the current government’s desire not to officially return to the union despite the current damage. He pointed out that this damage will lead to a reduction in the British GDP by an expected percentage of up to 6 percent in the coming years, according to analysts’ estimates.



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