During his first term, his policies were characterized by… Trump With hard-line stances toward multilateral cooperation, he opposed many international agreements and global groupings that he believed were not in the direct interest of the United States.
These policies may reshape the formation of effectiveness G20which includes the largest economies in the world, and raises questions about the future of cooperation between these countries in confronting major global issues.
The group is an essential platform for coordination between the world’s largest economies in areas such as trade, economic growth, and climate change.
With the victory of Trump, who has previously shown his preference for a unilateral approach in addressing global issues, the G20 negotiations may be significantly affected.
These effects may include a decline in obligations US towards international climate agreements or changes in its positions on free trade, which weakens the group’s ability to adopt effective collective policies.
Moreover, Trump’s skeptical stance in international gatherings, including the G20, reflects a rise in unilateralism that seeks to restructure the global order in favor of the interests of major powers.
In light of this policy, the G20 may be forced to rethink its strategies, and it may take a more flexible approach in its dealings with the United States or enhance its cooperation with the rest of the members to support global economic stability.
In this context, a report by the British newspaper “Financial Times” indicates that the election Donald Trump As a US president, he poses a real threat to international initiatives on climate change and taxes.
The report cited the discussions and negotiations that took place on the eve of the current summit meeting in Brazilespecially with regard to the threat of Argentine President Javier Milley, who is considered a close ally of Trump, to block the joint statement, due to objections related to taxing the wealthy and gender equality, according to people familiar with the negotiations.
According to the newspaper, Miley’s position has contributed to increasing the concerns of many Western diplomats, who believe that Trump’s election may embolden his conservative allies and lead to countries withdrawing from ambitious agreements related to issues such as global warming. Trump also previously pledged to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement.
Buenos Aires’ opposition to the initial draft of the statement, prepared by leaders’ representatives in the Brazilian city, came after Milley’s talks with Trump in Florida on Thursday, which marked the US president-elect’s first meeting with a foreign leader since his election victory.
But in this context, the British Prime Minister denied Keir Starmer Milley’s skepticism about climate change or Trump’s imminent arrival to the White House could be the end of global cooperation on this issue, as he said: “I don’t think so,” and stressed in his press interview on his way to Rio that the United Kingdom is showing leadership on issues of this kind.
For his part, António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations, called on the G20 negotiating countries during his statements in Rio to show a spirit of consensus, saying: “If the G20 is divided, it will lose its global influence and influence.”
It is noteworthy that this summit will be the last for US President Joe Biden, whose administration has sought to enhance cooperation across multilateral organizations such as NATO andGroup of Sevenin an attempt to address challenges such as war in Ukraine.
Repercussions of Trump’s victory
For his part, the economic expert, Ali Al-Idrissi, said in exclusive statements to the “Eqtisad Sky News Arabia” website that Donald Trump’s victory in the presidency may have a noticeable impact on the course of work and initiatives of the G20, based on his previous policies and positions, explaining that there are several aspects that may be affected. The result of this development is as follows:
- Disrupting climate initiatives: Trump previously withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement during his first term, indicating a potential negative impact on the G20’s collective climate efforts..
- The trend towards economic protectionism: Trump’s protectionist policies, which were characterized by the imposition of customs tariffs and the reconsideration of trade agreements, may complicate discussions in the coming years about free trade and exacerbate trade tensions between member states.
- Declining support for multilateralism: Trump’s previous policies have shown a tendency toward isolationism, which could weaken the United States’ role in supporting collective action within the group and affect its ability to coordinate efforts on global economic issues.
- Reframing priorities: A Trump win could push the group’s agenda toward a focus on issues such as immigration and geopolitical disputes, at the expense of economic development and social justice.
- Reinforcing geopolitical divisions: Trump’s uncompromising policies toward China and Russia may exacerbate divisions within the group, which could make reaching consensus on key issues more difficult.
He adds: “Trump’s influence on the group is not absolute, given the diversity of member states and the divergence of their interests.”
He said: “The European Union and China, for example, may work to balance positions and continue vital initiatives,” noting that previous experience with Trump showed that despite his policies, collective pressure from the rest of the member states contributed to the continuation of some important initiatives.
Al-Idrissi confirms that Trump’s return may pose a new challenge to the G20, but at the same time it may push member states to strengthen collective action to confront common challenges.
Uncertain future
According to a report by Politico, Trump’s victory will make the future of the G20 uncertain, as the president-elect has made clear that he prefers bilateral relations with other countries rather than building consensus through international organizations.
The report quoted the British Deputy Assistant Prime Minister for G20 Affairs, Creon Butler, as saying: “It is a more difficult world, and I do not think that Trump will share the same current goals with Biden.”
With the exception of Trump, Butler sees further fragmentation in the G20, with four groups emerging: the United States; The other G7 countries, along with South Korea and Australia; the “Global South”; Russia and China. “Ironically, we will need the G20 more than ever,” he added.
Policies of the president-elect
In turn, the advisor to the Arab Center for Studies and Research, Abu Bakr Al-Deeb, pointed out in exclusive statements to the “Eqtisad Sky News Arabia” website that the idea of “Trump” and his policies are based on a vision based on slogans such as “America First,” “America the Great,” and “America.” within its borders,” which reflects the position of the various international blocs, stressing that this thought reflects a fundamental contradiction with all international initiatives, such as initiatives to confront Global warmingThe Paris Climate Agreement, and international cooperation at the economic and political levels.
Al-Deeb explains that the protectionist policy adopted by this ideology is in clear conflict with the World Trade Organization agreements, as it calls for isolation and working alone, far from relying on allies or cooperating with them, whether they are military, strategic, economic, or political.
He adds: This approach rejects engagement with major international blocs such as the European Union, NATO, the G7, and the G20.
Al-Deeb stressed that such thought contradicts the nature of the international system based on partnerships and alliances, which makes its application difficult in light of the complexities of the modern world.
Together, the G20 countries account for more than 85 percent of global economic output, about 75 percent of global exports, and about 80 percent of the world’s population.
These numbers have remained relatively stable while the corresponding rates for the G7 countries, a smaller group of advanced democracies, have shrunk, with larger emerging markets accounting for a relatively larger share of the world economy.
The G20 was established in 1999, bringing together finance ministers and central bank governors from twenty of the world’s largest economies. A decade later, at the height of the global economic crisis, the G20 was upgraded to include heads of state and government.
