Political analysts say VP debates rarely alter election outcomes
Democrat Tim Walz and Republican JD Vance clashed late Tuesday at a vice presidential debate that was surprisingly civil in the final stretch of an ugly election campaign marred by inflammatory rhetoric and two assassination attempts.
The two rivals, who have forcefully attacked each other on the campaign trail, mostly struck a cordial tone, instead saving their fire for the candidates at the top of their tickets, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump.
The most tense exchange occurred near the end of the debate, when Vance – who has said he would not have voted to certify the results of the 2020 election – avoided a question about whether he would challenge this year’s vote if Trump loses.
Walz responded by blaming Trump’s false claims of voter fraud for instigating the Jan. 6, 2021, mob that attacked the U.S. Capitol in an unsuccessful effort to prevent the certification of Joe Biden’s 2020 election.
“He is still saying he didn’t lose the election,” Walz said, before turning to Vance. “Did he lose the 2020 election?”
Vance again sidestepped the question, instead accusing Harris of pursuing online censorship of opposing viewpoints.
“That is a damning non-answer,” Walz said.
Walz, 60, the liberal governor of Minnesota and a former high school teacher, and Vance, 40, a bestselling author and conservative firebrand U.S. senator from Ohio, have portrayed themselves as two sons of America’s Midwestern heartland with deeply opposing views on the issues gripping the country.
The rivals each sought to land a lasting blow at the last remaining debate before the Nov. 5 presidential election, arguing over the Middle East crisis, immigration, taxes, abortion, climate change and the economy.
But by and large the two men appeared intent on providing a demonstration of “Midwestern nice,” thanking each other even while they went after their respective running mates in the traditional attack-dog role for vice presidential candidates.
Vance questioned why Harris had not done more to address inflation, immigration and the economy while serving in Biden’s administration, mounting a consistent attack line that Trump often failed to deliver while debating Harris last month.
“If Kamala Harris has such great plans for how to address middle-class problems, then she ought to do them now – not when asking for promotion, but in the job the American people gave her 3-1/2 years ago,” Vance said.
Walz described Trump as an unstable leader who had prioritized billionaires and turned Vance’s criticism on its head on the issue of immigration, attacking Trump for pressuring Republicans in Congress to abandon a bipartisan border security bill earlier this year.
“Most of us want to solve this,” Walz said of immigration. “Donald Trump had four years to do this, and he promised you, Americans, how easy it will be.”
The night’s tone was a far cry from the divisiveness that has characterized the campaign. Trump has repeatedly denigrated Harris, including leveling racist and sexist attacks, and twice escaped attempts on his life. Walz had previously called his Republican opponents “weird,” and Vance came under fire for past comments disparaging some Democrats as “childless cat ladies.”
TRUMP LIVE-BLOGGING
The debate at the CBS Broadcast Center in New York began with the escalating crisis in the Middle East, after Israel continued its assault on southern Lebanon on Tuesday and Iran mounted retaliatory missiles strikes against Israel.
Walz said Trump is too “fickle” and sympathetic to strongmen to be trusted to handle the growing conflict, while Vance asserted that Trump had made the world more secure during his term.
Asked whether he would support a preemptive strike against Iran by Israel, Vance suggested he would defer to Israel’s judgment, while Walz did not directly answer the question.
Trump, watching on television, was posting furiously during the debate, sometimes twice a minute, on his Truth Social site, attacking the CBS moderators and calling Walz “pathetic” and “low IQ.”
A RAZOR’S EDGE
Political analysts say vice presidential debates generally do not alter the outcome of an election. That said, even a slight shift in public opinion could prove decisive with the race on a razor’s edge five weeks before Election Day.
Walz was asked about a report this week that he was not in China during the violent 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown, as he had previously claimed.
“I’m a knucklehead at times,” he said during a meandering answer. “I got there that summer and misspoke on this. So I was in Hong Kong and China during the democracy protests, and from that I learned a lot about what it means to be in governance.”
Vance, meanwhile, defended his running mate despite having criticized Trump ahead of the 2016 election.
“I was wrong about Donald Trump,” he said. “I was wrong, first of all, because I believe some of the media stories that turned out to be dishonest fabrications of his record. But most importantly, Donald Trump delivered for the American people.”
Walz also criticized Trump for his role in appointing three U.S. Supreme Court justices who joined the court’s decision to eliminate a nearly half-century nationwide right to abortion, an issue that has proven damaging to Republicans.
Vance, known for his deeply conservative stance on abortion, struck a more moderate tone on Tuesday, saying he did not back a national ban despite having expressed support for Republican Senator Lindsey Graham’s proposed 15-week limit in 2022. He said Trump’s view is that individual states should decide whether to limit abortion.
In a social media post, Trump said he would veto a national ban, weeks after he refused to say whether he would during the presidential debate.
Despite Vance’s having written “Hillbilly Elegy,” a popular 2016 memoir, U.S. voters have a negative view of him, Reuters/Ipsos polling shows, with 51% of registered voters saying they view him unfavorably, compared with 39% who view him favorably. Meanwhile Walz was viewed favorably by 44% of registered voters, with 43% reporting an unfavorable view in the Sept. 20-23 poll.
Harris was widely seen as the winner of her sole debate with Trump on Sept. 10 in Philadelphia, which was far more chaotic than Tuesday’s affair.
That square-off did little to change the trajectory of an extremely close election battle. While Harris has edged ahead in national polls, most surveys show voters remain fairly evenly divided in the seven states that will decide the November election.