Growing regional instability and changing political dynamics have prompted the first bid in a decade to end Turkey’s 40-year conflict with Kurdish militants, but its chances of success are unclear as Ankara has given no clues on what it may entail.
Several politicians and analysts told Reuters that the peace proposal by a close ally of Tayyip Erdogan has spurred both hope and uncertainty as to how the president might proceed.
Underlining how difficult it will be to restart peace talks, after the last effort between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in 2013-2015, the PKK claimed responsibility for a gun attack in Ankara last week that killed five people.
Yet peace would bring major dividends to Turkey, relieving a burden on its security forces, boosting the mainly Kurdish southeast’s under-developed economy and easing social tensions.
Many Kurds hope a peace deal would bring democratic reforms and a boost for Kurdish language and cultural rights – moves likely to be applauded by NATO-member Turkey’s Western allies.
Officials remain tight-lipped about any possible plan to bring this about. But the widening conflict in the Middle East and Turkey’s unease about the militants’ presence in northern Iraq and Syria are seen as factors in Ankara’s calculations.
“One of the most important reasons is regional dynamics, because the destabilisation of the Middle East results in an increased cost for Turkey from the Kurdish issue,” said Vahap Coskun, a law lecturer at Dicle University in the southeast’s largest city Diyarbakir.
Last week, Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahceli, suggested that PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, held in an island prison near Istanbul since his capture 25 years ago, come to parliament and announce the end of the conflict and the PKK’s surrender in exchange for the possibility of his release.
Several lawmakers from Turkey’s ruling alliance, speaking off the record due to the issue’s sensitivity, told Reuters Bahceli’s speech had surprised everyone and that talk of a new process was premature.
“As our president has said, there’s nothing extraordinary in Turkey’s pursuit to completely end terrorism at a time when wars and crises are going on in the region,” one lawmaker from Erdogan’s AK Party said.
‘WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY’
The only concrete move so far has been Ankara’s permission for Ocalan’s nephew to visit his uncle, the first family visit in 4-1/2 years. He subsequently quoted his uncle as saying he had the power to end the conflict “if the conditions are right”.
On Wednesday, Erdogan described Bahceli’s proposal as a “historic window of opportunity” and urged Kurds to accept the extended hand. But he also said no call was made to “the terrorist barons feeding on blood”, referring to the PKK itself.
Erdogan promised “good news for our nation that will guarantee the security of our entire southern border”, beyond which, in Syria and Iraq, are the Kurdish fighters over whom Ocalan holds sway.
Turkey has launched incursions into northern Syria in the last decade, targeting Kurdish forces that it says are terrorists closely tied to the PKK, but which have been a major partner for the U.S.-led coalition against Islamic State.
Ankara is also pressing Baghdad for greater cooperation in combating militants based in northern Iraq, where strikes by Turkish warplanes and drones have caused major PKK losses.
More than 40,000 people have been killed in Turkey’s conflict with the PKK, which is also designated a terrorist group by Ankara’s Western allies.
Bahceli first signalled his intentions when he shook pro-Kurdish DEM Party lawmakers’ hands in parliament this month, a surprising move given his long condemnation of them as tools of the PKK. He also referred to DEM in his call to Ocalan, suggesting a possible role for them in any process.
Tayip Temel, a deputy leader of DEM, said Bahceli’s call merited careful assessment, but said there was deep uncertainty about Ankara’s plans.
“The government needs to make a decision on this issue and create the dynamics that can start a process,” Temel told Reuters.
Politically, there is a favourable environment for a resolution to the conflict, given that the call has come from Bahceli, the leader most opposed to the peace process a decade ago. Turkey’s main opposition has also signalled its support.
Some commentators said Turkey’s ruling alliance might be motivated by a desire to win DEM’s backing for constitutional change that could boost Erdogan’s prospects in elections scheduled for 2028.
Uncertainty also persists about the level of authority Ocalan still exerts over the PKK from jail. In a statement, the PKK described Ocalan as its interlocutor in any talks with Ankara, but it is unclear what they would seek from any peace process.
In Diyarbakir, shopkeeper Halit Koc said people were responding positively to the proposal but he remained sceptical.
“They reached the final stage of the peace process before and broke it off. I do not think they (Turkey) will be very sincere in this peace process either,” Koc said.
