The company reveals that 45,900 aircraft are expected to be delivered globally over the next 20 years, equivalent to a total value of US$3.3 trillion, as airlines continue to invest in newer, more sustainable aircraft.
This year’s predictions come as they go Aviation industry In the face of supply chain issues that delay aircraft deliveries, the report expects deliveries to decline by 5 percent between 2024 and 2027 due to a shortage of components, compared to 2023 data.
The data also reveals that during the fourth quarter of 2024, the total number of aircraft currently in service stands at 26,100, which is 5 percent more than in January 2020, the year of the pandemic, demonstrating the industry’s strong growth and recovery trajectory.
This increase was driven by the delivery and operation of single-aisle aircraft, up 13 percent, with the number of twin-aisle aircraft down 3 percent from pre-pandemic levels. The number of active regional aircraft also remains down 8 percent from pre-pandemic levels, with turboprop aircraft seeing the largest decline of 13 percent.
Looking ahead to the next 20 years, Cirium’s fleet forecast report also reveals that of the 45,900 new aircraft scheduled to be delivered between 2024 and 2043, about 98 percent will be passenger aircraft, with the company expecting capacity to grow by 4.4 percent annually.
Despite this, an estimated 3,500 freighter aircraft are expected to be delivered in the next 20 years, with the industry’s freighter fleet expected to grow by 2.6 percent annually. The majority, or about 70%, of these aircraft will be through passenger-to-freighter (P2F) conversions rather than new deliveries, as airlines look to make the most of the current surge in demand.
Expectations indicate that my company Airbus andBoeing They will remain the two largest commercial aircraft manufacturers, delivering an estimated 84 percent of aircraft between them, and that number is expected to rise to 90 percent by value in 2043, while COMAC is expected to account for a 6 percent share of the order. There is about $180 billion in demand for other manufacturers and potential new programs within the next 20 years.
Asia as a whole will remain the leading region in aircraft growth, accounting for about 45 percent of deliveries over the next 20 years, with China contributing about 20 percent of that alone, bringing it close to North America’s total.
This growth is also exacerbated by the rise of commercial aviation within Indiawhich is expected to see the number of passenger aircraft in the country increase from 720 at the end of 2023, to more than 3,800 over the next twenty years.
Rob Morris, head of consulting at Cirium Ascend Consulting, said: “As we continue to enter the next cycle of growth for the aviation industry, our new fleet report demonstrates the continued demand for new aircraft, as airlines look to renew and expand their fleets.
However, it is clear that other supply chain and manufacturing issues will continue to cause delays for OEMs, leading to uncertain delivery schedules for many airlines, and this has been factored into our forecasts.
“With markets like India poised for significant growth, it is clear that the next 20 years will be increasingly competitive for manufacturers, as airlines continue to invest in their fleets.
“The forecast also illustrates the challenge of sustainability and net zero as fleet growth is balanced by the efficiency of new aircraft to drive reductions in unit emissions.”
Cirium also revealed that single-aisle aircraft are expected to drive industry growth over the next 20 years, with a projected annual growth rate of 3.9 percent, surpassing 3.3 percent for twin-aisle aircraft, as long-haul traffic continues to see slower growth post-pandemic. Regional aircraft are expected to rise more modestly at an overall rate of 0.8 percent annually.
