In addition to the security implications of the war, the massive influx of Sudanese refugees across the border has placed significant economic and social pressures on a number of countries neighbouring Sudan.
Economic damage
As the war drags on, border trade activities with some neighboring countries have declined by up to 90 percent, with disastrous consequences, especially for countries that were dependent on Sudanese ports In its exports and imports, such as South Sudan, Chad and to some extent Ethiopia.
The effect seemed greater on State of South Sudan The war dealt it a double blow, as it was completely dependent on Sudanese lands for its oil exports, which constituted about 90 percent of its national income resources, and it was also dependent on Sudanese markets to provide more than 70 percent of its needs for food products and others.
The war in Sudan has created enormous challenges for South Sudan, with inflation rising to more than 200 percent due to declining oil revenues, amid a significant deterioration in living conditions.
The influx of more than 650,000 refugees has exacerbated the situation. Sudan The humanitarian, economic, social and political crises in South Sudan. Currently, 46 percent of the population of about 12 million people are facing crisis levels of food insecurity.
Neighbouring Chad has also been badly affected, as it has historically relied on border trade with Sudan. “Since the outbreak of the war in Sudan, Chad has been suffering from rising prices of a number of commodities that used to be imported across the Sudanese border, such as sugar and other strategic goods,” says African affairs analyst Abdallah Al-Jaber.
Al-Jaber explained to Sky News Arabia, “After the outbreak of the war, many commercial, industrial and tourism activities between Chad and Sudan stopped.”
Security chaos
More evidence has emerged recently of links between militant groups in a number of neighbouring African countries and the parties to the Sudanese war.
And exchange Sudanese army and rapid support forces Accusations of using armed groups from neighboring countries. While the army says that groups from Chad and the Central African Republic are fighting with the Rapid Support Forces, the latter published videos that it says show forces affiliated with the Ethiopian Tigray Liberation Front fighting alongside the Sudanese army forces.
In May, the Ethiopian government said in a statement that it had received information that there were forces from the Tigray Liberation Front fighting alongside the Sudanese army, noting that there were forces affiliated with the Tigray Front in refugee camps in Sudan and that they had not entered Ethiopia, after the peace agreement signed between the two parties in Pretoria, in November 2022.
Observers confirm that Sudanese war It is a source of concern for some neighboring countries that suffer from the presence of armed movements opposed to their central governments. In Ethiopia, three armed groups are fighting the federal government: the Tigray Liberation Front, the Oromo Liberation Army, and the Fano movement, which descends from the Amhara ethnic group and is also known as the Amhara People’s Forces. In the Central African Republic, there are 14 armed groups, the most prominent of which are the Seleka coalition, the “Alliance of Patriots” led by former President François Bozizé, the “Popular Front”, the “Movement of Central African Liberators for Justice”, and the “Anti-Balaka” militia.
Government forces are facing South Sudan A war has been ongoing for more than 9 years with a number of armed factions, some of which broke away from the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) army, which has ruled the country since its secession in 2011.
Musa Shehu, an expert in African strategic affairs, confirms that any disturbance in any of the countries in the region is reflected in the rest of the countries, creating a state of security uncertainty.
In an interview with Sky News Arabia, Sheikho explained, “The prolongation of the war in Sudan leads to very serious border repercussions. In light of the preoccupation with the war, the ability to monitor the borders declines, which opens the way for the control of armed groups outside the authority of the state.”
The spread of terrorism
The spread of fighting into 13 of the country’s 18 states raises serious concerns about creating an environment conducive to transnational terrorist groups.
During the months following the outbreak of the war, the security battalions and militias that the Brotherhood had begun to build since the beginning of the nineties appeared, and thousands of young men were recruited to protect it.
With reports of regional terrorist groups, there are growing concerns that terrorist groups will exploit the current public mobilization and security fluidity.
The cross-border relationship with terrorist organizations has immersed Sudan in numerous acts in neighboring countries during the past three decades, the most prominent of which is the attempted assassination of former Egyptian President Mohamed Hosni Mubarak in Ethiopia in 1995, the bombing of the American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998, and the USS Cole off the coast of Yemen in 2000.
In this context, academic and terrorism researcher Abdel Moneim Hemat told Sky News Arabia, “The current war could contribute to fueling terrorist activities in Africa in several ways, as the continuation of the war leads to the weakness of government institutions, which creates a power vacuum that terrorist groups can exploit to impose their influence and control certain areas, especially in remote border areas.”
“With the disintegration of security services and the weakness of government control, it becomes easy to smuggle and spread weapons across borders, which enhances the capabilities of terrorist groups in Sudan and neighboring countries,” he added.
Hemat points out that the site Sudan This makes it a suitable crossing for human trafficking networks, arms smuggling, drugs and terrorist groups.
Hemat warns that Sudan’s neighboring countries, such as Chad and South Sudan, suffer from security fragility and could be directly affected by the Sudanese war, which would enhance the environment conducive to the expansion of terrorist groups in the region.
Red Sea Security
The war in Sudan has fueled American and international concerns about the security of the Red Sea, especially after the authority in Port Sudan resorted to cooperating with Russia and Iran in order to obtain weapons.
Russia and Iran’s interest in Sudan comes amid growing interest by regional and international powers in the Red Sea region, as it is a vital passage for oil and international trade and has a strategic military location.
After the outbreak of war, the change in the balance of international relations, and the army’s increasing need for weapons, there was renewed talk of attempts to revive an agreement signed by Russia in 2017 with the regime of Omar al-Bashir, who ruled Sudan from 1989 to 2019, which stipulates the establishment of a naval base on the Red Sea, which has angered the United States and many countries that considered the establishment of the Russian base to pose a threat to international security.
Sudan has a 700-kilometre coastline on the Red Sea, which is also bordered by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Djibouti, Somalia, Eritrea, Jordan and Yemen. Following the outbreak of the current war, Moscow sought to revive the project, in exchange for financing the army with its weapons and equipment needs.
Former Sudanese Foreign Minister Ibrahim Taha Ayoub told Sky News Arabia that the Port Sudan government is in a real predicament and has no choice but to turn to Russia to provide it with weapons, military expertise and perhaps support in international forums. Reports indicate that the Port Sudan government has received pledges from Moscow for huge military supplies in exchange for guaranteed guarantees to establish a Russian base on the Red Sea coast, and huge concessions in the fields of mining and agriculture.
Reports indicate a significant increase in the Iranian presence in Sudanese beaches On the Red Sea. These reports confirmed the signing of a number of agreements to strengthen the Iranian presence in Sudan through military activities related to arms and training relations, and other economic activities represented by companies working in the field of mining, agricultural and animal investments.
- Indicators
Most of Sudan’s neighboring countries are suffering from the consequences of the influx of Sudanese refugees fleeing the war. According to estimates by the United Nations and non-governmental humanitarian organizations, the number of Sudanese who crossed the borders to neighboring countries has reached 3 million people, about 70 percent of whom headed to 4 neighboring countries: Egypt, Chad, Ethiopia and South Sudan. - Many border areas are witnessing violent fighting.
While El Fasher, the capital of Darfur, which has been witnessing violent fighting for more than 4 months, constitutes a strategic depth towards Chad and the Central African Republic, the Sennar and Blue Nile axis are considered axes of concern for Ethiopia and the state of South Sudan.
- Amid growing American, international and Arab concern,
Russia seeks to implement agreement Russian naval base The 25-year agreement provides for the establishment of a Russian naval facility in Sudan capable of receiving nuclear-powered warships and accommodating up to 300 military and civilian personnel, and allowing it to receive four ships at a time.
