Family squabbles are best kept behind closed doors. When families fight in public, everyone else tends to turn away as the uncomfortable and deeply personal secrets spill out. That is, unless you’re talking about the reality TV that is the 2024 college football season … where everyone has a substantial investment in how everyone else’s family squabbles go.
It’s Rivalry Week in college football, traditionally a time when programs — much like family members — reunite with their oldest foes. And much like a Thanksgiving dinner where you’re interrogated on why you’re not as successful as your cousin, Rivalry Week has had intensely local implications.
Most years outside of Georgia, it’s not particularly significant who wins Georgia-Georgia Tech; outside of Tennessee, the Tennessee-Vanderbilt score is a crawl across the bottom of the screen and nothing more.
Most years.
One of many happy unintended consequences of the expanded College Football Playoff is the new importance of rivalries outside their state borders. In days gone by, a loss in a rivalry game might eliminate one school from championship contention. Now, a loss in a rivalry game can start a cascade that opens up playoff spots, championship game berths, even first-round byes.
Consider how much could change in the CFP picture based on who wins the family fistfight this weekend:
The Palmetto Bowl (Clemson vs. South Carolina): A win here keeps Clemson in the hunt for an ACC championship and a playoff berth. A victory for South Carolina would legitimize the Gamecocks’ season, provide hope for the future … and provoke some regret that the LSU game got away from them. Plus, it would clear one hurdle for Alabama or Ole Miss to sneak back into the CFP.
Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt: An irrelevancy at best prior to this year, the Tennessee-Vanderbilt game now carries substantial weight. Vanderbilt has shown it has the ability to knock out top-flight SEC teams, and Tennessee cannot afford another loss in order to remain comfortably in the CFP.
Notre Dame vs. USC: At long last, the Jeweled Shillelagh trophy is once again as important as its participants believe it is. At stake here: Notre Dame’s spot in the CFP field. The Irish’s strength of schedule is already suspect, and that early-season loss to Northern Illinois lurks out there just waiting to wreck Notre Dame’s season. A loss to 6-5 USC would eradicate Notre Dame’s playoff chances. No pressure, Irish.
Indiana vs. Purdue: Another of the most important games of the weekend, hands down. Ohio State knocked the shine off Indiana’s immaculate season last week; Purdue could knock it into the ditch entirely. A two-loss Georgia, Tennessee or Ohio State could make the playoff; a two-loss Indiana likely would not. And as with Clemson, Notre Dame and Tennessee above, an Indiana loss would raise hopes at multiple other programs.
Clean Old-Fashioned Hate (Georgia vs. Georgia Tech): Georgia has already locked up a spot in the SEC championship, meaning its path to the CFP is clear. But a loss to the Yellow Jackets would make Georgia’s task in the SEC championship imperative: Win or else.
Duel in the Desert (Arizona State vs. Arizona): The stakes for Arizona State are clear: win, and the Sun Devils are in the Big 12 championship and playing for a CFP berth. (There’s , but that’s a narrow road.) A loss, and suddenly BYU, Iowa State and Colorado have new playoff hopes.
The Iron Bowl (Auburn vs. Alabama): Whatever faint hopes Alabama still has to make the CFP field rest on this game. Alabama must win, and preferably win big, to keep its flickering chances alive. Good thing nothing weird has ever happened in an Iron Bowl.
The Game (Ohio State vs. Michigan): This is really more of a job-security issue for Ryan Day than playoff positioning, since Ohio State could afford to lose this one and still make the CFP field. But Day is 1-3 all-time against Michigan, including three straight losses, and if his Buckeye battleship can’t take out a hobbled Michigan this year, the murmurs will get louder.
The Egg Bowl + Florida State vs. Florida: Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Florida State and Florida all played themselves out of contention this year, whether it was last weekend (Ole Miss) or before September (Florida State). But these two rivalries ought to have significant impacts on two separate conferences soon, if these teams can get their acts back together. The kind of chaos that spills forth from these games — remember — deserves national playoff implications.
Worth noting: Rivalry games have more meaning because outside of the opening-round byes, there are no prescribed slots set aside for conferences. The SEC could end up with as few as two slots this year … and we wouldn’t have that kind of drama if the league were gifted four slots. It’s all the more reason why preseason predictions and conference chest-beating are fine, but the on-the-field results are paramount … and the drama they create should be preserved.
All of this together means that Rivalry Week means more this year, in the aggregate, than it ever has before. So yes, we are now all paying attention to your family squabbles. Act accordingly … and don’t lose.
