Donald Trump completed the unlikeliest comeback on Tuesday, winning the US presidential elections much more easily than he had done in 2016. His choice for vice president, Senator JD Vance said “I think we just witnessed the greatest political comeback in the history of the United States of America,” and it would be difficult argue with his assertion. Others said Trump had “done the unthinkable”. This was only the second time in America’s history that someone won two non-consecutive terms – the first was Grover Cleveland in 1893.
It was an astonishing comeback after losing to Joe Biden in 2020, his refusal to accept defeat, the mob attack on the Capitol building in Washington in January 2021 and impeachment twice. Even leading Republicans distanced themselves from Trump after the 2021 riots, when he appeared to be down and out. He never gave up on his aim for a second term and never lost the support of his popular base, which remained loyal to him through everything he went through, despite the impeachments and open hostility of the mainstream media. Other things worked out well for him – Biden’s physical decline and the use of Vice President Kamala Harris as a last-minute, emergency candidate.
According to exit polls the three main issues for the voters were abortion, democracy and the economy. While in the first two, Kamala Harris may have had the edge, on the economy Trump was ahead, as the economy flourished during his first term – there was a stock market boom and unemployment was to down to historic lows. He was criticised at the time for lowering tax for the wealthiest, but his blue-collar support also benefited from a booming economy. Biden’s presidency has been marked by soaring inflation, which eroded living standards, something that worked to Trump’s advantage. People may indeed vote with their pockets.
“Trump will fix it,” read a giant banner inside auditorium in West Palm Beach, Florida where Trump had his election watch party. He may tackle immigration and put the US economy back on track, but what will his election mean for the rest of the world? Fears are already being expressed in Europe about his stance on the war in Ukraine. Will he side with President Vladimir Putin and stop US support which is critical to Ukraine’s defence and what impact would this have on US relations with Europe which considers the war an existential threat?
Then there is the war being waged by Israel in Gaza and Lebanon. Will he stand by his urging to Israel to “finish the job” and what consequences will giving a free rein to Israel have? Will this lead to a war with Iran, an attack on which Trump had supported during his first term? Nobody can say at present what his approach will be and we may have to wait until after his inauguration in January before we have an idea. There is also the question of the future of Nato of which Trump has not been a great supporter. His criticism, during his first term led most members to increase their defence spending to 2 per cent of GDP, but whether this satisfies the new president remains to be seen.
These were not considerations for the American voters, who believed Trump, despite his many faults, offered a better way ahead than Harris and the Democrats.
