“Ninth” on Sky News Arabia witnessed a careful analysis of this Israeli escalation with a specialist in The Iranian nuclear file.
Israel is rising
He pointed out Netanyahu The recent Israeli strikes that targeted Iranian nuclear facilities last October have made progress in weakening this program.
He said that there was an agreement between Tel Aviv And Washington on the need to prevent Iran from possessing… Nuclear weaponThis highlights the close cooperation between the two countries in confronting Tehran.
In this context, Israeli fears emerge about the possibility of European powers activating the “mechanism.”Snapback“If a new nuclear agreement is not reached with Iran before 2025, which would re-impose UN sanctions on Tehran.
But what is the snapback mechanism that Tehran fears?
- Reached by the administration of the former US President Barack Obama If Iran breaches its obligations under the nuclear agreement.
- It specifically stipulates the reactivation of 6 UN resolutions frozen under the nuclear deal, which ultimately means the return of UN sanctions on Iran.
- The countries that signed the deal can trigger the “snapback” mechanism through the joint committee regarding the other party’s violation of any of the terms of the agreement, and if the problem is not resolved after 30 days of notifying the UN Security Council, the UN sanctions will return to effect.
- If the problem is resolved, one of the members must Security Council Move to halt the implementation of sanctions, and other member states may veto the measure.
- This mechanism expires in October 2025, and if Tehran does not reach a new deal with the Trump administration before next October, it may face the European powers reactivating the “snapback” mechanism, and thus the return of UN sanctions.
Will the snapback mechanism be activated?
In his intervention from Paris, Michel Abu Negm, director of Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper’s Paris bureau, confirmed that Iran today faces a major threat from the European Union, especially after the imposition of new sanctions on Iranian air and sea transport due to its military support for Russia.
Abu Negm explained that there are real fears that European countries will seek to transfer Iran’s nuclear file to the UN Security Council and activate the “snapback” mechanism, which is a mechanism that allows the return of international sanctions that were frozen under The nuclear agreement.
But Abu Negm added that in light of the volatile American position, it may be difficult for the Europeans to take this step in the near future.
The American position
Abu Najm confirmed that Nuclear negotiations With Iran, you will not find a way to resolve the crisis unless there is American consensus.
He pointed out that the United States is the main player in this crisis, and that the position of… Washington The fate of the negotiations will be determined in the coming period.
Despite the close negotiations witnessed in recent years, Iran may face a more difficult situation if it wins Donald Trump In the upcoming presidential elections, in this case, the Iranians will find themselves facing more intense American pressure, especially in light of Trump’s previous statements about the “maximum pressure” policy against Tehran.
European and Iranian pressure: escalation or calm?
Talking about European threats may open the door to questions about Iran’s strategies in dealing with future negotiations. At a time when pressure on Tehran is increasing from all directions, Iran does not appear ready to give up its nuclear program easily.
Despite the Israeli escalation, the most important question remains: How will Iran deal with Western and American pressure? Will you be able to avoid returning to UN sanctions?
A look to the future
As the nuclear agreement expires in October 2025, the prospects for political solutions remain blurry. The recent Israeli escalation in the Iranian nuclear issue raises the level of tensions in the region and increases the complexity of the ongoing negotiations.
At the same time, the fate of the nuclear agreement remains dependent on developments in American policy and hard-line European trends towards Iran.
In light of the continuing escalation on the Iranian nuclear program front, the most prominent question remains: Will Iran be able to reach a new agreement that eases the impact of sanctions, or will the escalation continue and become more complicated in light of Western and Israeli threats?
