The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway at the entrance to the Persian Gulf, is a major shipping route that handles approximately 30 percent of global oil trade. This strait is rarely far from the center of global tensions, and therefore it is always subject to careful monitoring by experts in search of… Signs indicating possible disorders.
Strategists say that any potential disruption in the Strait of Hormuz as the conflict between Israel and Iran worsens is likely to be worse for global oil shipments than the Red Sea crisis, and may push the global economy into chaos. Taking a look at history, we find that Iran has repeatedly targeted commercial ships. Which passes through the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to prevent tankers from crossing through it.
- Where is the Strait of Hormuz located?
The Strait of Hormuz borders Iran to the north, andUnited Arab Emirates andSultanate of Oman From the south, it connects the Arabian Gulf to the Indian Ocean.
The strait is about 100 miles (161 kilometers) long and 21 miles wide at its narrowest point.
The shallow depth of the strait increases the exposure of ships to sea mines, and its proximity to the Iranian coast could expose tankers to missile attacks or interception by Iranian boats and helicopters.
- What is his role?
The Strait of Hormuz acts as a strategic lever for global oil trade. During the first quarter of 2024, oil tankers shipped approximately 15.5 million barrels per day of crude and condensate from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Iran through the strait, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Also Strait of Hormuz It is important for liquefied natural gas, as data showed that more than a fifth of global gas supplies, mostly from Qatar, passed through the strait during the first quarter of 2024.
- What might happen?
On April 13, 2024, due to tensions between… Israel In Iran, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard seized an Israeli-linked container ship near the Strait of Hormuz.
The Revolutionary Guard unit carried out its attack on the MSC ship by helicopter, as special forces boarded the ship and were directed towards Iranian territorial waters.
Now, with the return of tensions between Israel and Iran and turning into a larger conflict, observers fear that Tehran will resort to using its influence and straining the movement of ships in the strait to put pressure on countries around the world.
Why is Iran disrupting shipping?
According to Bloomberg, Iran has used the Strait of Hormuz for decades to register its dissatisfaction with the sanctions imposed on it, or as a means of pressure in conflicts.
Tehran claimed that the MSC ship was detained for violating maritime regulations, but analysts indicated that its connection to Israeli ownership was the motive behind the detention.
When Tehran seized a tanker bound for the United States in April 2023, it claimed that the ship collided with another ship, but the move appeared to be a retaliation for the seizure by US authorities of a ship loaded with Iranian crude oil off the coast of Malaysia on the grounds of sanctions violations.
In May 2022, Iran seized two Greek tankers and detained them for six months, possibly in retaliation for the seizure by Greek and American authorities of Iranian oil on board another ship.
- Has Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz before?
Not yet. During the 1980-1988 war between Iraq and Iran, Iraqi forces attacked the oil export terminal at Kharg Island, northwest of the strait, in part to push Iran forward into retaliation that would draw the United States into the conflict.
After that, in the so-called tanker war, the Iranian and Iraqi sides attacked 451 ships between them, which led to a significant increase in the cost of securing tankers, which contributed to raising oil prices.
When sanctions were imposed on Iran in 2011, Tehran threatened to close the strait, but eventually backed down, with oil traders skeptical that the country would completely close the strait because that would prevent it too from exporting its oil. Moreover, the Iranian Navy is inferior to the US Fifth Fleet and other forces present in that region to secure and protect global shipping traffic.
- Can the Strait of Hormuz be protected?
During the Tanker War of 1984-88, the US Navy resorted to escorting ships through the Gulf.
In 2019, America sent an aircraft carrier and B-52 bombers to the region. In the same year, the United States began Operation Sentinel in response to Iran’s disruption of shipping traffic. Ten more countries – including the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain – subsequently joined the process, now known as Building International Maritime Security.
But since late 2023, much of the focus on protecting shipping has shifted away from the Strait of Hormuz to the southern Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb Strait, where attacks on ships by Yemen’s Houthi militants have become a greater concern.
- Who depends more on the strait?
Saudi Arabia exports most of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz, although it can divert flows using a 746-mile pipeline through its territory to a terminal on the Red Sea.
The United Arab Emirates can also partially bypass the strait by sending 1.5 million barrels per day via pipeline from its oil fields to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman.
Some of Iraq’s oil is shipped by sea from the Turkish port of Ceyhan, but 85 percent of Iraq’s oil passes through the Strait, while Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain have no choice but to ship their oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
The most important choke point in the world
Dr. Alfred Riachi, a member of the World Economic Forum, said in an interview with “Iqtisad Sky News Arabia” website, that throughout the world, there are about 200 canals or straits, however, only a few of them are described as “choke points”, as they are… The Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important choke points in the world, derives its strategic importance from the fact that its closure could halt maritime traffic carrying millions of tons of oil daily.
He considered that the escalation of emerging tensions between Israel and Iran, and the possibility that Israel would respond to Tehran by bombing its oil facilities, might push Iran once again to use its influence in the Strait of Hormuz by exacerbating the situation there.
According to Riachi, some experts believe that if Israel carries out a major air strike against Iran, the latter may resort to using its submarines to plant smart bombs in the strait to target oil tankers that may be linked to Israel.
He pointed out that such a confrontation may lead to the United States intervening to curb the deteriorating situation there and prevent the global economy from being pushed into chaos, but in any case, the increasing risks in the Strait of Hormuz will double the risk premiums and costs of oil tankers once again after they rose due to what is happening in the Strait. Bab al-Mandab.
Riachi reveals that the Iranian authorities have long made threats to close the Strait of Hormuz. However, the implementation of this step is far from reality, and this is due to the fact that the Iranian economy cannot survive without ensuring the smooth passage of oil through the Strait. Iran, in turn, exports its oil via Strait, while the international community is aware that America Which maintains great influence in the Middle East, will not allow the global economy to be destabilized, especially since if oil prices rise, the chances of the American Democratic Party in the presidential elections will diminish, pointing out that Iran may resort to directing limited and directed strikes in the Strait of Hormuz to demonstrate its influence and power in the region.
Disastrous scenario
Riachi believes that the worst scenario, despite the lack of hope for its occurrence, remains that Iran will completely close the Strait of Hormuz, as a look at history highlights the economic risks represented by this closure, noting that the largest turmoil in the oil market ever occurred in August 1990, when it led to Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait took 4.3 million barrels per day of oil off the market, or about 6.5 percent of the global supply at the time.
This halt caused global oil prices to double from about $20 to $40 per barrel, and taking into account that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would remove approximately 15.5 million barrels per day of crude and condensate from the market, this would inevitably lead to an unexpected earthquake. This is unprecedented in the oil markets and will push the price of a barrel to levels well above $150.
Riachi stressed that the Strait of Hormuz should not be compared to the Strait of Bab al-Mandab, located between Yemen and Djibouti at the southernmost tip of the Red Sea, connecting it to the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea.
Closing the Strait of Hormuz will cause a disaster for the global economy, while what is happening in the Bab al-Mandab Strait can be overcome by incurring an additional financial cost and taking a longer shipping route, pointing out that there are no other practical alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz, although the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates can. Bypassing the route by shipping outside the Arabian Gulf but even this is not efficient enough.
In turn, Professor of Political and Strategic Studies, Dr. Issam Malkawi, said in an interview with “Iqtisad Sky News Arabia” website, that he does not believe that Iran wants to close the Strait of Hormuz, but rather to show off its capabilities in using its capabilities, and this media show is completely different from the practical show, so he spoke somewhat. Of confusion and mobilization among the opponents, but it keeps to itself the action or lack thereof without paying the cost, because the cost of any major step like this will not be small for Iran, as the damage to the opponents is great and their reaction to Iran will be greater, so all these threats are nothing but media wars, the intent of which is Confusion and confusion.
Malkawi believes that controlling the chaos in the behavior of some regional powers or actors without the state is possible, but sometimes it is annoying and costly, and the actions of the Houthis are the greatest example. He pointed out that the mere threat of using the Strait of Hormuz as a pressure card mobilizes American power, so the threat and counter-threat become the master of the situation, but Iran is taking advantage of this situation to build itself an international character.
