Quarterback
Start: Jalen Hurts, Eagles
Through his career, Hurts has averaged 9.2 adjusted yards per attempt with throwing to A.J. Brown and 8.7 AY/A when targeting Devonta Smith.
For reference, Lamar Jackson leads the NFL in AY/A at 8.9. Brown has been out since Week 1 and Smith was injured in the middle of Week 3. Now Hurts gets a Cleveland defense that has fallen off in 2024, ranking 17th in EPA per dropback allowed. Hurts is poised to reclaim his spot among the top five fantasy quarterbacks with both of his receivers back on the field.
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Start: Jared Goff, Lions
Goff and the Lions are on game-of-the-week watch. Their matchup with the Cowboys has a 52-point total, the highest of Week 6. Vegas has them projected for 27.5 points, trailing only the Ravens. The Cowboys are below-average in EPA per dropback and fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Dallas’s pass-rush has generated pressure at just the 17th-highest rate and is expected to be without Micah Parsons this week. All signs point to an offensive explosion for Detroit.
Sit: Justin Fields, Steelers
Fields needs to get back to winning to keep his starting job, but he is at his best as a fantasy option when the Steelers lose.
Fields has averaged 27.2 fantasy points in his two losses and 15.6 points in three wins. Arthur Smith will only let his quarterback throw the football when playing at a deficit and that doesn’t look particularly likely this week. The Steelers are three-point favorites in a game with a 36.5-point total.
Sit: Anthony Richardson, Colts
Richardson looks probable to return from his hip injury in Week 6, but fantasy managers should exercise caution in his first game back. The Colts had a -10% pass rate over expected in Richardson’s three full games.
He topped 40 rushing yards in a game once and peaked at 212 passing yards. Richardson has finished inside the top 20 quarterbacks in one game this year. It’s a wait-and-see week for the former No. 4 overall pick.
Running Back
Start: Rico Dowdle, Cowboys
Dowdle closed the door on Ezekiel Elliott in Week 5, out-carrying him 20-6 in a comeback win over the Steelers. He also topped a 50 percent snap share for the first time this year and saw the Cowboys’ only goal line attempt. Dowdle is taking over just in time for the biggest shootout of the week.
Start: Bijan Robinson, Falcons
Robinson’s role was scaled back in Week 4, but things returned to normal last week. He logged a 70 percent snap share and accounted for 65 percent of the Falcons’ carries. Both marks align with his numbers from the first three weeks of the season. Robinson didn’t have the opportunity to make good on his reclaimed role because the Falcons dropped back to pass 60 times. They won’t do that versus Carolina this week. No team has faced more running back carries or allowed more rushing yards than the Panthers. The Falcons are six-point favorites.
Sit: Jerome Ford, Browns
The Browns simply can’t support a fantasy-viable back given the current, dismal state of their offense. Ford hasn’t topped 10 carries in a game since Week 1, when he had 12 attempts. That was also when he scored his only touchdown of the year. The Browns are averaging 1.4 touchdowns per game, ahead of only New England and Miami. They are 9.5-point underdogs to the Eagles this week.
Sit: Devin Singletary, Giants
Singletary appears to be back after missing one game with a groin injury. He should reclaim the starting role once cleared for action, but it’s hard to imagine him dominating the work like he did before the injury. Tyrone Tracy Jr. is 11th in rush yards over expected per carry after amassing 129 yards on 18 totes last week. Singletary is 36th in RYOE per carry and is losing yards versus his expectation. Singletary’s biggest draw as a fantasy option was his stranglehold on the backfield touches. With Tracy emerging as a more explosive option, Singletary may be a committee back on a mediocre offense going forward.
Wide Receiver
Start: Tank Dell, Texans
After losing Nico Collins to a hamstring injury, the Texans need to replace half of their deep targets and 44 percent of their intermediate looks. Dell has more deep shots than Stefon Diggs in one fewer game and both receivers are averaging two intermediate looks per week. Dell’s aDOT of 11.3 is just below Collins’ mark of 12.6 while Diggs is all the way down at 6.6. Diggs will still see an uptick in targets with Collins out, but Dell is positioned to be C.J. Stroud’s big-play threat for the next month.
Start: Dontayvion Wicks, Packers
We’re going back to the well on Wicks despite getting burned last week. Wicks was targeted seven times and accounted for 44 percent of Green Bay’s air yards but only caught two passes for 20 yards. He has run a route on 81 percent of Jordan Love’s dropbacks over the past two weeks. Wicks has earned a 26 percent target share and 40 percent of the air yards in his two starts. The Packers get an Arizona defense that is 27th in EPA per dropback allowed on Sunday. It’s Martingale week for Wicks.
Sit: DeAndre Hopkins, Titans
The Titans are taking things extremely slow with their veteran wideout. Hopkins has run a route on 44 percent of his team’s dropbacks this year. The Titans are desperate to hide their quarterback behind a ground game and have a -7% pass rate over expected. That low passing volume, in turn, has Hopkins at 105th in routes run among wide receivers. Hopkins isn’t seeing the field enough to warrant a look as anything other than a WR5.
Sit: Rashid Shaheed, Saints
Shaheed is a certified baller, but we can’t say the same of his quarterback. The Saints are starting rookie Spencer Rattler while Derek Carr nurses a multi-week oblique injury. Since 2000, Day Three picks making their first start have averaged 178 passing yards at 6.2 yards per attempt. Rattler ranked outside of the top 50 quarterbacks in PFF passing grade on deep throws in both of his seasons at South Carolina. Chris Olave gets a downgrade in the ranks via the quarterback switch as well, but Shaheed’s high-difficulty targets will be even more volatile without Carr under center.
Tight End
Start: Jake Ferguson, Cowboys
Ferguson is the TE5 in total expected fantasy points despite missing one week. Only George Kittle is averaging more expected points per game. Ferguson has one of the best weekly projections for receiving volume and has reached the top of the expected points charts without a single red zone or end zone target, giving him room to grow. He should be treated as a top-five fantasy option going forward.
Start: Trey McBride, Cardinals
McBride leads all tight ends in target share and target rate, sitting at 26 percent on both stats. Only two tight ends have seen a higher share of their team’s air yards. Even with a relatively quiet start to the season, the third-year tight end is still averaging a solid 1.6 yards per route run. All of his underlying metrics are those of a top-flight fantasy option. His fantasy totals will catch up soon.
Sit: Mark Andrews, Ravens
Andrews is still playing a part-time role. He ran a route on less than half of Lamar Jackson’s dropbacks for the third week in a row and earned a middling 13 percent target share. Andrews turned that into four receptions for 55 yards, but he needed 42 pass attempts from Jackson to get there. Unless Andrews participates in the highest-scoring game of the year once again, we shouldn’t expect him to be a reliable fantasy option.
Sit: Cole Kmet, Bears
Kmet is currently the TE6 but has topped nine PPR points once. Over half of his fantasy points came in Week 3 when he posted a 10/97/1 receiving line. Two-thirds of his fantasy points have come in the two games without Keenan Allen. In three games with Allen in the lineup, Kmet has a 10.7 percent target share with an average of 5.6 PPR points.
