According to an economic survey by Bloomberg International, experts expect Germany’s gross domestic product to contract this year by 0.1 percent after shrinking last year by 0.3 percent, while analysts had expected the GDP to stabilize during the current year one month ago.
The agency indicated that experts lowered their growth expectations The largest economy in Europe During the next year, it will reach 0.7 percent of GDP, compared to 0.8 percent, according to previous expectations. Experts also expect growth Economy At a rate of 1.3 percent during 2026.
Bloomberg reported that German economy It once again succeeded in avoiding falling into the trap of technical recession when it recorded an unexpected growth of 0.2 percent during the third quarter, after contracting at a rate of 0.3 percent during the second quarter of the year.
At the same time, analysts’ expectations also deteriorated due to the increasing political uncertainty after the re-election of the former US president Donald Trump For a new term, and the collapse of the coalition government in Germany.
Joachim Nagel, head of the German Central Bank, warned that… Customs duties Which the US President-elect intends to impose on his country’s imports could be costly Germany About 1 percent of GDP.
He added that in light of this, Germany’s economic growth rate will be less than 1 percent over the next year even without imposition American feeswhich means a contraction of the German economy even without the imposition of these duties.
Last week, the Council of Economic Elders in Germany warned of the repercussions of potential trade policy measures that US President-elect Donald Trump might take on the German economy.
The Council of Elders of Economics is an advisory body affiliated with the German Council of Ministers, which includes five senior experts in the field of economics. Its official name is the “Council of Experts for the Evaluation of Comprehensive Economic Development.”
Martin Werding, a member of the Council, said that raising customs duties on imports from Europe may further weaken Germany’s growth prospects, noting that this effect may not be significant next year, but it will appear more clearly in the following years. Werding believed that imposing higher tariffs by the United States would also pose risks to the global economy.
The Council of Elders lowered its expectations for the German economy, as it expected the gross domestic product to contract this year by 0.1 percent, and to grow by no more than 0.4 percent next year.
