If Donald Trump wins a new presidential term, this will have profound implications for the rest of the world, especially in light of his strict positions on a number of international issues, such as trade relations with China, the Iranian nuclear file, and economic support for America’s traditional allies.
Trump’s victory may lead to a period of tensions and differences that may reshape the map of international alliances, and bring the world into confrontation with a more independent policy directed toward protecting American interests.
According to a report by theconversation, the current elections constitute a “pivotal moment in the history of the United States,” and may have major repercussions on how the country is governed and on the future of the global order that Washington helped build after World War II.
Unlike any election since 1945, the basic principles of American relations with the rest of the world are at stake. The choice is between the Republican Party, led by… Donald Trumpwhich may push towards isolation US From the international community, and between a more open agenda led by Kamala Harris under the umbrella of the Democrats, where the United States is likely to continue its important role in NATO, for example.
Customs duties on China
One of the most visible shifts in US foreign policy is Trump’s plans to impose global tariffs of 20 percent on all foreign imports. The duties on China may reach much higher rates, as Trump previously threatened to raise them to between 60 and 200 percent. These plans, in addition to being inflationary and harmful to the US economy, are likely to lead to trade retaliation, trade wars, and turmoil in the global economy. By reducing access to the world’s largest consumer market, it also hinders international efforts to transition towards a carbon-free economy, according to the report.
But these environmental dimensions are not among Trump’s priorities, as he plans to withdraw from the Paris Agreement on climate change, cancel the environmental protection measures approved by Joe Biden, and open the way for the unregulated exploitation of oil and gas resources in the United States. These policies, if implemented, would add massive amounts of carbon to the atmosphere, threatening global efforts to address climate change.
Commitment to defending friends and allies
The report notes that in the 2024 elections, questions also arise about the US commitment to defending its allies and friends against “hostile states.” As a member of NATO, the United States is obligated to assist other members under Article 5 if they are attacked by another country, and is also bound by similar treaties with Japan and South Korea. The Biden administration has led NATO in providing military and financial support to Ukraine to enable it to resist Russia.
As for Trump, he indicated that he would end this support and put pressure on Kiev to accept peace on Moscow’s terms. He sees the network of alliances as a burden and a source of danger rather than an essential pillar of power and influence.
Many former officials, such as former National Security Advisor John Bolton, fear that Trump, if he wins a second term, will seek to withdraw from NATO or weaken it by reducing support. In Asia, his recent comments that “Taiwan should pay us to protect it” signaled a decline in his commitment to the island’s security.
Global concern!
For his part, the economic expert, Dr. Ali Al-Idrissi, explained in exclusive statements to the “Eqtisad Sky News Arabia” website that:
- The apparent concern in some global circles about the possibility of Donald Trump winning the presidential elections is due to several reasons related to his controversial economic and international policies, and their potential impact on the global economy and international security.
- The most prominent reasons are the impact and repercussions of protectionist policies on global trade, as his previous presidency witnessed the adoption of protectionist policies that included imposing high customs duties on a number of countries, which led to the escalation of trade disputes, especially with China.
- There are fears that Trump will return to these policies, which could lead to disruptions in global supply chains, shrinking trade volume, and slowing global economic growth.
- In addition, the isolationist tendencies in foreign policy and the “America First” policy he adopts focus on reducing American interventions abroad and withdrawing from some international agreements.
He explained that this approach, if followed, may lead to a decline in the leadership role of the United States on the international scene, which raises concerns about the stability of international alliances, especially in light of the geopolitical tensions with Russia and China, in addition to the negative impact on climate change and environmental policies, especially since his presidency. The previous saw Trump withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement and take steps to roll back environmental restrictions, so if he is elected again, there are fears that he will roll back global efforts to combat climate change, which could hinder progress towards limiting global warming.
He also stressed that relations with allies and international partners are another reason for fearing the possibility of his victory in light of his previous policies, which witnessed tension with many of the traditional allies of the United States, such as the European Union and NATO, as a result of his repeated criticism of their role and financing, as well as concerns about Trump’s economic tendencies. , including reducing taxes and increasing military spending, as they led to an increase in the federal budget deficit and public debt, so concern is growing about the possibility of a return to fiscal policies that may increase the burden on the American economy, which may have repercussions on global financial markets.
In addition to the tensions with China, and the trade war with it, which was one of the prominent features during Trump’s first term, there is therefore concern that his return may lead to a greater escalation in tensions with China, not only on the trade level, but also on the military and political level, which may It negatively affects the stability of the region, according to Al-Idrissi.
Challenges of elections and the integrity of the democratic process
Returning to theconversation report For many observers, the current US elections carry additional importance due to skepticism about the ability of the United States to hold free and fair elections and ensure a peaceful transfer of power. Since entering the presidential race in 2016, Trump has not accepted the results of the election he lost.
What is most exciting is his (Trump’s) success in convincing the majority of Republican voters that the 2020 elections were rigged, while only a third of them believed that their results were legitimate. When confidence in the electoral process is undermined to this extent, it is difficult to imagine how the United States can come together to govern itself after the election.
However, the Trump camp offers a ready response to these challenges. According to Project 2025, a policy document prepared by a conservative think tank, the Trump administration plans to dismantle the bureaucratic structure in Washington and appoint 50,000 officials loyal to it. The project also seeks to disband a number of federal agencies such as the Departments of Justice, Energy and Education, as well as the FBI and the Federal Reserve, with the aim of imposing its political agenda.
These measures are intended to enable Trump to implement a set of policies that some see as authoritarian, such as deporting millions of “illegal immigrants,” using the National Guard and the military if necessary.
The report indicates that the American experiment with democracy has been an inspiration to the world since its founding in 1776, but there has never been a time when this experiment seemed as vulnerable as it is today. The United States is deeply divided on fundamental issues, including taxes, immigration, abortion, trade, energy, environmental policies, and its role in the world.
For the first time, these divisions appear to be more important to many voters than respect for their democratic institutions and traditions. More importantly, a growing number of American citizens seem unable to accept the results of the democratic process and the legitimacy of the winner. It is clear that the results of these elections, and how the United States will govern based on them, have become an issue of utmost importance at the local and international levels.
Strong threat
In turn, Abu Bakr Al-Deeb, advisor to the Arab Center for Studies and Research and head of the Forum for the Development of Arab Thought for Research, stated in exclusive statements to the “Eqtisad Sky News Arabia” website that:
- Trump strongly adopts protectionist policies and favors the economic isolation of the United States, not only against its opponents such as China and Russia, but even against its European allies.
- These trends reinforce fears about the possibility of Trump returning to the international arena, especially in light of his desire to renew customs duties to protect American products.
- Such policies receive widespread objections even within the Republican Party itself, as Trump refuses to spend on America’s traditional alliances such as the European Union and NATO.
- There is great concern about Trump’s position towards international agreements, especially environmental ones, as he considers them an obstacle to the growth of American industry even if they have negative effects on the environment, such as the Paris Climate Agreement.
- Trump’s retreat from these agreements threatens global efforts to confront climate change and reduce carbon emissions, which undermines the world’s efforts in recent years to limit the effects of global warming.
Trade war
In this context, the head of the Cairo Center for Studies and Research, Khaled Al-Shafi’i, explained in exclusive statements to the “Eqtisad Sky News Arabia” website that:
- The state of anxiety prevailing in some countries of the world outside the United States is linked to several factors, most notably fears of the outbreak of a new trade war between the United States and China, the two largest global economic powers.
- These concerns increase in light of the potential repercussions of any economic escalation between the two countries, which may negatively affect the global economy and harm the interests of many countries.
- Every country seeks to protect its priorities and interests amidst rapid changes, and therefore countries’ positions on the results of the US elections differ based on the impact of each candidate’s policies on their relations with the United States.
- Candidate Trump has a vision and priorities that may not be in line with the interests of some countries, which raises concerns about the possibility of his victory, especially since his style of decision-making tends toward direct decision-making and lacks traditional political reservations, which may cause disturbances in international relations.
- This international concern about Trump’s victory, especially from countries such as Iran and China, stems from their previous experiences with his policies and positions regarding the hot geopolitical tensions in different regions of the world.
Economic and geopolitical impacts
The US election is widely expected to have “economic and geopolitical implications for the rest of the world,” according to a report by Global Insights, which noted:
Regarding Africa, both candidates will seek to combat the geostrategic and commercial influence of China and Russia on the continent. Harris will be more committed to initiatives that support African institutions, the broader development agenda in the region, and the push for greater regional economic integration. Trump will focus on securing influence over strategic partners in Africa and access to their natural resources.
As for Asia: American security alliances in East Asia will endure under the leadership of either candidate. But demands from allies will rise significantly under Trump’s leadership. China-linked supply chains in Southeast Asian economies will be subject to similar scrutiny, with punitive measures likely under Trump’s leadership. A rise in the value of the US dollar under Trump’s leadership could reignite balance of payments pressures for some Asian economies.
China: The economic decoupling between the United States and China under Trump will be more intense and broader than under Harris, and will extend across a broader subset of industries and areas of cooperation. A more confrontational period with the United States would accelerate China’s efforts to stabilize its relations with its American allies and improve its relations with non-Western countries.
Europe: We expect stronger US pressure on European defense spending levels during the Trump era compared to Harris, as well as a faster reduction in US aid to Ukraine. Imposing comprehensive tariffs on EU exports to the United States would constitute a major shock to the European economy, especially Germany’s economy, a shock that we expect to provoke an adverse response from the European Union.
Latin America: Under Trump, the region is likely to face slower economic growth, higher inflation, higher borrowing costs, and complicated foreign relations, especially with regard to China. The regional outlook is likely to be more positive under Ms. Harris, although we still expect some tightening in US policies on immigration and relations with China.
Middle East: The United States will remain militarily engaged in the Middle East regardless of the outcome of the presidential election. Both Harris and Trump are pressuring Israel to stop military action in Gaza and Lebanon. Trump will likely align with right-wing Israeli policies, while Harris may call for a two-state solution. Under either administration, Israel would remain a key US ally, driven by security concerns in the region, particularly Iran.
