CHESTER — They aren’t must-win games until the table says they are, in Jim Curtin’s mind. But Saturday’s result will go long way to forestalling that mathematical fate.
The Union have a golden chance to consolidate their place above the playoff line, the ninth-place team in the Eastern Conference hosting 11th-place Atlanta United at Subaru Park (7:30 p.m., AppleTV). Creating distance from one of their playoff-spot chasers is there for the taking.
“Every one is a must win,” Curtin said Friday. “There’s no margin for error for anyone that’s not above the red line comfortably or clinched right now.”
The Union (9-12-9, 36 points) occupy the final Eastern Conference playoff place. They are two points ahead of Montreal and three up on Atlanta (8-13-9, 33 points). The Union are tied with eighth-place Toronto FC, which has the first tiebreaker between the teams.
For perhaps the last time, this weekend’s schedule favors the Union. Toronto travels to Chicago to face a Fire team facing elimination. TFC had to play in Vancouver Wednesday, losing the Canadian Championship in penalties. Sixth-place Charlotte (41 points) ventures to Miami to face the Supporters’ Shield winners in waiting. Seventh-place New York City FC (41 points) is at Red Bulls. Montreal has a chance to keep up the pressure, hosting dead-in-the-water San Jose before consecutive trips to Atlanta and Charlotte make for a rocky run-in.
The Union have the chance to move within a result of seventh place by the end of the weekend, which would avoid the 8-9 playoff game and the booby prize of Inter Miami in the next round. Of course, none of that means anything if the Union don’t take three points at home against an Atlanta United side in flux, under an interim coach.
The Union have scored first in seven of eight games, including last week’s 4-0 win over D.C. United. Curtin called out his club’s “awful” start, until a couple of saves by Andre Blake and a Mikael Uhre opener in the 13th minute woke the hosts up.
“In games previous, it was awful, and we got punished,” Curtin said. “And this one, it was awful, and we scored kind of against the run of play. And then after we scored the goal, it wasn’t a passive team. It was OK, let’s be us now, and then we were, I thought, pretty relentless the rest of the 80 minutes.”
They won’t want to risk similar luck against Atlanta, even if the Five Stripes have endured an uneven season. Rob Valentino, the interim coach in 2021 between the firing of Gabriel Heinze and the hiring of Gonzalo Pineda, has gone 4-5-5 since Pineda was let go in June. Atlanta is coming off consecutive 2-2 draws with Inter Miami and Red Bulls. That was the score April 14 when the Union rallied from a two-goal deficit to nick a point at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Atlanta is 3-7-5 away from home. It is a much different side since selling Argentine World Cup winner Thiago Almada in July for a reported $19 million to Brazilian club Botafogo and using $12 million to acquire 28-year-old Aleksey Miranchuk from Italian club Atalanta.
While not a must-win, the urgency is escalating as the Union’s schedule dwindles. They embark on a three-game week, the norm in the condensed MLS slate. Wednesday brings a trip to fifth-place Orlando City, one point behind Red Bulls in fifth. Orlando is in Dallas Saturday and goes to Cincinnati next week.
Next Saturday, the Union visit Columbus, which they lost to 3-1 in the Leagues Cup and 1-0 at Subaru Park in late August. The Crew, which lost to Club America in penalties in the Campeones Cup Wednesday, is playing its 15th game in eight weeks and its eighth since Sept. 7.
Curtin said his club has a plan in place for this stretch, professing a desire to put the team in good position before the week off for the October international window ahead of Cincinnati’s visit on Decision Day. He’ll rely on reserves who helped get results in both New York stops last month to push hard in Orlando. He has a full squad available, with Danley Jean Jacques (ankle) close to healthy and likely in line to start Wednesday. One remaining hurdle is for left back Kai Wagner, who has been on yellow-card warning the last four games, to go without a caution against Atlanta and meet his good behavior incentive to erase a card.
The plan against Columbus could change based on what that game means to each team. But that also depends on the Union executing between now and then.
“We have to approach all three games a little bit differently,” Curtin said. “We have a plan in place, but we also have to be able to adapt and adjust. And the most important game is Atlanta.”
