Consider the chaos unleashed.
On Monday, the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets will play a doubleheader to determine not just their own playoff fates but the fate of the Arizona Diamondbacks as well. Rain from Hurricane Helene washed out two contests between Atlanta and New York last week in what was supposed to have been a monumental, three-game showdown. Instead, the latter two games were banged, leaving the entire National League wild-card picture up in the air.
A scenario existed that would’ve rendered such makeup games statistically moot, likely leading to their cancellation. Instead, an Atlanta loss combined with victories by New York and Arizona on the final scheduled day of games on Sunday left all three teams effectively tied in the standings. And so, the most wonky of scenarios — a season-deciding twin bill sandwiched between Game 162 on Sunday and Game 1 of the wild-card round on Tuesday — has become reality.
Let’s handicap the madness and preview what’s sure to be an unforgettable day of baseball.
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How did we get here?
Mother Nature is the simple answer. Rain in Georgia last week left Truist Park unplayable. The league could’ve forced the Braves and Mets to play at a neutral site but opted not to do so. Surely the league was hoping the results over the final weekend of games would make playing the doubleheader Monday unnecessary. Had the Diamondbacks not stormed back for 11 runs on Sunday after going down early against the Padres, MLB would’ve gotten its wish. Arizona would’ve been eliminated with a loss, propelling New York and Atlanta into the October tournament.
A Braves win Sunday would have activated perhaps the most unsavory scenario, in which Atlanta would’ve clinched a wild-card spot but still would’ve had to play New York twice on Monday because the Mets would’ve needed to win both to clinch and eliminate the D-backs.
Thankfully, that’s not how it went down. We’re left with ample mayhem nonetheless.
What scenarios are at play?
There are three possible outcomes: The Mets could sweep, the Braves could sweep, or the two clubs could split the doubleheader.
If a team wins both games Monday, said club is in the playoff field alongside Arizona, with the loser of the doubleheader headed home for the winter. A split between New York and Atlanta would propel both teams into the playoffs and send the Diamondbacks packing, even though all three teams would have identical records. That’s because both the Mets and the Braves hold a tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks.
If the Mets and Braves split the doubleheader, Atlanta would be the No. 5 seed and New York the No. 6 seed, based on Atlanta’s winning the season series between the two. The Braves would then head to San Diego to face the Padres, while the Mets would return to Milwaukee to play the Brewers.
If a team goes 2-0 on Monday, that club, be it New York or Atlanta, would head to San Diego as the No. 5 seed, while Arizona would play Milwaukee as the No. 6 seed in a rematch of last year’s wild-card round.
In other words:
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Atlanta gets in with a win. The Braves can be only the No. 5 seed.
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New York gets in with a win. If the Mets win one Monday, they are the No. 6 seed. If they win both, they are the No. 5 seed.
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Arizona gets in if either Atlanta or New York sweeps the doubleheader. The D-backs can be only the No. 6 seed.
Doesn’t that create a bizarre set of incentives?
Yes. The winner of Game 1 on Monday clinches a playoff spot with that victory, making Game 2 irrelevant for that team. Conversely, whichever team loses Game 1 faces a win-or-go-home situation in Game 2.
That means it would behoove the winner of Game 1 to (1) lose Game 2 as quickly as possible and (2) do so while relying on the least important group of players available. And that’s understandable, given the outrageous travel involved in all of this and the zero days off between this doubleheader and the start of the playoffs on Tuesday.
For instance, if the Mets win Game 1, it would be pointless for them to deploy flame-throwing closer Edwin Díaz in Game 2. Doing so would leave him more taxed for a Tuesday playoff game. And similar to what can happen on a getaway day during the regular season, there’s a chance that the Game 1 winner’s hitters will swing early and often to make Game 2 skedaddle along.
Who is going to pitch?
The Braves have repeatedly said that likely NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale will start only an elimination game. As such, Atlanta plans to roll out Spencer Schwellenbach in the opener and use Sale in Game 2 only if they lose Game 1. Sure, the Braves would love to knock out their division rivals — and vice versa — but spite is less motivating or important than, you know, getting to throw Chris Sale in Game 1 of a playoff series.
The Mets are likely to utilize a similar strategy, with backend starter Tylor Megill likely to start Game 1 and frontline hurler Luis Severino waiting in the wings for Game 2 if necessary. That makes a Sale-Severino showdown extraordinarily unlikely.
Unfortunately, all of these factors create an enormous disadvantage for the Diamondbacks, who will spend Monday sitting in front of the TV, waiting and hoping.
For the rest of us, it means a bonus day of high-stakes baseball, one featuring some of the most bizarre possible outcomes in recent memory.
