Iran has supported Hezbollah for 40 years as the main arm of its militia network, as a front-line defense against… Israel. But in the past two weeks, Hezbollah’s capacity has begun to collapse following Israeli attacks on its leadership, arsenal, and communications.
This major loss created a division within the Iranian government over how to respond to the killing of Nasrallah, with conservatives demanding a strong response, and moderates, led by new Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, calling for restraint.
According to the American newspaper “The New York Times”, everything that happened was abandoned Iran The Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is in a weak position.
Khamenei’s position
Four Iranian officials who knew Nasrallah personally and were briefed on the events said that Khamenei was deeply affected by the death of his friend and was in a state of mourning, but he took a calm stance.
Khamenei has adopted the same tone in public. Instead of attacking Israel, he issued two restrained statements, praising Nasrallah and saying that Iran would stand with Hezbollah.
Khamenei pointed out significantly that HezbollahIt is not Iran that will lead any response to Israel, and Iran will play a supportive role.
Khamenei said: “All the resistance forces stand with Hezbollah. Hezbollah, at the head of the resistance forces, will be the one who will determine the fate of the region.”
This was a sign, some analysts said, that Khamenei may not have any way to respond effectively at the present time to the Israeli attack on his agents.
Faced with a choice between all-out war with Israel or hiding for the sake of self-preservation, he appears to be choosing the latter. According to the New York Times.
After Khamenei’s statements, a wave of reactions from senior Iranian officials and military leaders was in the same cautious tone, as they sought help from other agents in the region to retaliate.
Backfire
In Tehran, the announcement of Nasrallah’s death sparked concern among senior officials, who wondered in phone calls with The New York Times and during emergency meetings whether Israel would strike Iran next, and whether Khamenei would be its next target, as the four Iranian officials said.
For Iran, the gamble in activating its network of armed groups known as the “Axis of Resistance” to open fronts against Israel was to keep the pressure on without igniting… All-out regional war.
From different angles, the year-long standoff between Iran, its proxies, and Israel reached its violent climax when Nasrallah was killed. Iran’s efforts to weaken Israel through its proxies appear to have backfired, resulting in a disastrous strike against its most strategic ally.
Division in Iran
When news spread that Israel may have killed Nasrallah, Khamenei called an emergency meeting of the Supreme National Security Council at his home, Iranian officials said. During the meeting, Iranians were divided over how to respond.
Conservative members, including Saeed Jalili, an influential former presidential candidate, claimed that Iran needed to quickly establish deterrence by striking Israel, before the Israeli Prime Minister brought in Benjamin Netanyahu The war is heading to Tehran, according to officials familiar with the meeting.
New Iranian President Pezeshkian, who spent the past week telling world leaders at the UN General Assembly that his government wanted to defuse tensions and align with the West, argued against such a response, saying Iran should not fall into a trap set by Netanyahu for a broader war, Iranian officials said. range.
Other moderate voices in the council claimed that Netanyahu crossed all red lines, and if it launched attacks on Israel, Iran could face horrific attacks on its vital infrastructure, something the country cannot afford, these officials said, especially in light of the difficult economic situation.
“Hezbollah’s recovery”
Two Revolutionary Guard members, one of whom attended planning meetings over the past two days on how Iran would respond, said Iran’s immediate priority is to help Hezbollah recover, name a successor to Nasrallah, form a new leadership structure and rebuild a secure communications network. After that, Hezbollah can plan its response to Israel, they said.
Two members confirmed Revolutionary Guard Iran plans to send a senior Quds Force commander to Beirut via Syria to help guide Hezbollah’s recovery.
