Presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are locked in a dead heat among Pennsylvania voters, a new Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll found.
Coming as mail-in ballots begin going out in Pennsylvania and less than two months before Election Day, the poll found 48% of surveyed voters plan to or are leaning toward voting for Harris and 48% are leaning toward or definitely in favor of Trump.
The latest poll follows several others released in the last week showing a tight race in the state.
A Marist poll of likely voters between Sept. 12-17, as well as a Rasmussen Reports poll of likely voters from Sept. 19-22, also showed a tied race. A poll of likely voters by The Hill/Emerson College showed Trump with a narrow 1-point lead.
A series of polls taken earlier in the month, including a USA Today/Suffolk University poll, showed Harris with a lead of several points over Trump in the state. The Real Clear Politics average of polls shows a virtual dead heat, with Harris having a lead of just over a half of percentage point.
Polls are not perfect indicators of the election’s outcome, but can be a valuable insight into voter sentiments and leanings — essentially a “snapshot in time” that could change as Election Day approaches. Pennsylvania is one of the most important swing states in the nation, with 19 Electoral College votes, and is widely seen as key for both the Republican former president and the Democratic vice president.
Here are other key takeaways from the Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll, which surveyed 450 likely voters Sept. 16-19.
Trump’s favorability improves
While state voters back Trump and Harris equally, the percentage of people who view the former president favorably, 45%, is an improvement from the spring, when the previous Muhlenberg College poll taken in April had him at 39%. In a Muhlenberg College poll taken last December, only 33% had a favorable view of Trump.
Harris’ favorability is 47% in the most recent poll. Muhlenberg College did not survey likely voters about her in April, when she was not the Democratic nominee for president.
Large education and gender gaps
Voters are starkly divided between Trump and Harris among gender and education lines. According to the poll, male voters favor Trump over Harris 59%-36%; female voters support Harris over Trump at the exact same ratio.
People without a four-year college degree are much more likely to support Trump over Harris: He has a 19-point advantage among those voters. But Harris leads even more drastically among people with a college degree, with a 32-point lead: 65% of college-educated voters lean toward Harris, compared with just 33% who favor Trump.
Casey still ahead in Senate race, but both candidates’ favorability drops
Democratic U.S. Sen. Bob Casey, who is running for a fourth term, leads Republican challenger Dave McCormick by 5 points, a sizeable lead, but still within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 6 percentage points. The survey found 48% of voters plan to or learn toward supporting Casey, 43% are likely to vote for McCormick and 9% said they would vote for neither or are still unsure.
While Casey’s lead is largely unchanged from the last Muhlenberg College poll in April, both Casey and McCormick have seen a drop in their favorability ratings. In the April survey, 39% had a favorable view of Casey, compared to only 33% in the latest poll. Meanwhile his unfavorable rating jumped 5 points from 33% to 38%.
While McCormick’s favorable rating was unchanged at 28%, his unfavorable rating jumped 12 points from 26% to 38%.
A barrage of negative campaign ads in the race likely explains the drop in favorability, according to the poll’s key findings.
Voters divided in party preference for U.S. House races
Voters across Pennsylvania’s 17 congressional districts are also split on who to vote for: 45% of likely voters said they would vote for the Democratic candidate, 45% said they are leaning or definitely Republican, and 10% are still unsure.
The results of a Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll on voters in Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District, which covers Lehigh, Northampton, Carbon and part of Monroe counties, are expected in early October.
Economy, reproductive rights, immigration lead as issues
The economy has remained top of mind for Pennsylvania voters this election cycle: 35% of respondents cited the economy and inflation as the most important issue to them. That was followed by abortion and reproductive rights (13%) as the most important issue, then immigration and the border (11%).
View the full Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll results here.
Election Day is Nov. 5. The last day to register to vote in Pennsylvania is Oct. 21.
Reporter Lindsay Weber can be reached at [email protected].
