It’s that time of year when everyone starts asking about what’s in store for winter.
And while it’s always difficult to predict weather patterns with certainty this far out, it’s looking like there’s a decent chance it will be a good year for skiers and snowboarders.
The U.S. National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center is estimating a 71 per cent chance we will transition into a La Niña climatic pattern this winter.
Like its sibling El Niño, La Niña is a climate pattern resulting from the flow of warmer water in the Pacific Ocean, with the capability of affecting weather worldwide.
We are currently exiting an ENSO Neutral pattern.
By contrast, the La Niña phase in our region typically delivers lower-than-average temperatures, with higher-than-average precipitation.
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This tends to mean more snow in the mountains and maybe the possibility of snow even in the Metro Vancouver area.
But La Niña doesn’t always produce exactly those results.
When we talk about cooler temperatures than normal, we may see just a drop in temperature by a degree or two degrees.
It does not necessarily mean that we’ll get snow in the lower elevation region of Metro Vancouver, though we may see some.
Hopefully, it does mean that we’ll get some significant accumulation of snow in the mountains because as we head into the spring, that snowpack is critical in helping reduce the risk of the following wildfire season.
Higher-than-average precipitation will also be good news in addressing the multi-year drought B.C. is facing, particularly in parts of the province’s north, and will be particularly helpful if it comes before the ground freezes.
It’s important to note that despite the expected overall La Niña trend, there will still be some periods where it will be warmer and some periods where will be much cooler, and we can expect more erratic, stormy conditions as we head into the winter.
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