The Director of the FAO Office in Geneva, Dominique Burgeon, said in a press conference on Friday that the number is likely to increase. “According to the Climate Prediction Center’s probabilistic forecasts issued in September, there is a 71 percent chance that the La Niña phenomenon will start in the period from September to November 2024 and is expected to continue until January to March 2025.”
The organization’s report said that the World Meteorological Organization’s long-range forecast centers indicate a possible transition to the La Niña phenomenon during the same period with a probability of about 55 percent.
The phenomenon comes after one of the strongest recorded instances of El Niño – a climate phenomenon that causes temperatures to rise and rainfall to be disrupted on continents – in 2023-24, when countries such as South Africa experienced devastating drought and the Horn of Africa saw severe flooding after years of drought.
He pointed out that the El Niño phenomenon caused extreme weather events such as drought, heat waves and floods, which affected more than 60 million people worldwide and was one of the main drivers of food insecurity over the past month.
The report warned that as affected areas continue to deal with the fallout, the impending La Niña phenomenon threatens to exacerbate already critical vulnerabilities. It stressed that this collision of extreme climate events threatens to reverse years of development progress, push food prices higher, and exacerbate food insecurity and malnutrition.
The organization pointed out that these phenomena caused devastating floods and hurricanes in Myanmar and Vietnam.Nigeria Which led to the killing of hundreds, the displacement of thousands and caused billions of dollars in damage.
The organization said that these disasters show how vulnerable many regions are when extreme weather conditions strike, causing people to lose their homes, livelihoods and sometimes their lives. It warned that agri-food systems that are highly sensitive to climate change may face long-term impacts such as the degradation of soil and water resources, as disrupted planting seasons, reduced crop yields and the loss of livestock will make it difficult for farmers to maintain production and push millions more into hunger and poverty.
She stressed that it is time to manage disasters differently. “Since the great El Niño event in 2015-2016, the organization and its partners have made significant progress in adopting a more proactive approach to dealing with disasters, using early warnings and establishing flexible financing mechanisms to enable proactive action.”
She said evidence from areas that have adopted these proactive measures shows cost-effectiveness, reduced losses, improved food security outcomes and rapid recovery for farmers, underscoring the critical role of a proactive, flexible and coordinated approach in reducing the economic costs of the climate crisis.
She explained that thanks to the support provided by partners, she was able to act early in the face of the recent El Niño phenomenon and protect 1.7 million farmers before risks in 24 countries, as well as protect their livelihoods and enable them to continue producing food despite the shocks.
