The form of the conflict that took place between Lebanon and…Israel For a period of approximately 14 months, and its pace escalated in the last two months, an additional shock to the fragile Lebanese economy, which made the economic wheel fall at record speed to the bottom of the abyss at various levels.
The head of the economic bodies revealed LebanonFormer Minister Mohamed Choucair, in an interview with the “Eqtisad Sky News Arabia” website, said that the country’s economic and production sectors went through an unprecedented situation during the war from various aspects, which threatened the fall of the Lebanese state.
He pointed out that about 30 percent of factories stopped working due to their presence in hot areas, while the activity of the industrial sector as a whole decreased by about 50 percent.
Collapses in various sectors
Choucair pointed out that the commercial sector in Lebanon, with the exception of food and medicine, recorded a significant decline of between 80 and 90 percent, and this decline also affected the restaurant sector, which recorded a contraction of more than 90 percent.
While the occupancy rate in hotels ranged between 5 and 10 percent, which is a catastrophic rate for the sector, according to Choucair, noting that the activities of the exhibitions and conferences sector reached zero with the cancellation of various activities, while the nightlife sector was completely paralyzed, which declined by 100 percent.
Choucair revealed that agricultural activity in Lebanon decreased by more than 40 percent, while air travel decreased significantly, with arrival traffic at Rafic Hariri International Airport declining by 90 percent, in addition to a decline in departure traffic by 60 percent, while Beirut Port maintained its movement. Compared to last year, it recorded a decrease of about 30 percent relative to the expected expectations for this period.
According to what an official source in the economic bodies revealed to the “Eqtisad Sky News Arabia” website, immediately after the end of the war, Choucair called on the Lebanese economic bodies to hold an emergency meeting tomorrow afternoon, Friday, with the aim of developing a vision and vision for the requirements for the advancement of the private sector, as well as to activate private companies and institutions in the country. The day after the war, the meeting will focus on how to provide soft financing to private institutions and companies, which were greatly damaged by the bombing and also by the decline in business.
The official in the economic bodies considered that the level of business in Lebanon declined by about 85 percent due to the war, which put institutions in a critical situation and were forced to lay off their workers.
Therefore, the revival of these institutions requires long-term financing, and this is what the economic bodies will work to secure in the next stage, in cooperation with the government and donors, especially since the banks, due to the crisis they are going through, are unable to provide financing or grant loans.
Harsh bill on the economy
In turn, the researcher at “Information International”, Muhammad Shams al-Din, said in an exclusive interview with “Iqtisad Sky News Arabia” website, that the numbers show that the amount of direct and indirect damage resulting from the war, until the day it ended yesterday, amounted to about 12 billion US dollars.
He explained that the direct losses included the total and partial destruction of buildings and residential units, with a value of no less than 5.2 billion dollars, in addition to damage to infrastructure, such as water, communications, electricity and road networks, with a value of 600 million dollars, while the losses of commercial, tourism and industrial establishments amounted to about 520 million. dollars, while the agricultural sector incurred losses worth $920 million as a result of the fires and recession, in addition to the costs of removing rubble and repairing damaged cars, which were estimated at $430 million.
According to Shams al-Din, the indirect losses of the war, resulting from the decline in the economy, were estimated at about $4.2 billion, distributed in two phases. The first phase extended from October 8, 2023 until September 16, 2024, during which the economy incurred daily losses estimated at $6 million.
As for the second phase, which witnessed an escalation in the pace of the war, it extended from September 17, 2024 until the ceasefire on November 27, 2024, during which losses were estimated at $30 million per day, with a total of $2.1 billion within 70 days, as the losses reached their peak with the halt of the economy. By approximately 50 percent.
Shams al-Din reveals that there are 15,000 institutions that have been partially or completely damaged, in which about 250,000 employees and workers have stopped working, and they may return to work in the institutions to which life will return, while it is necessary to wait at least two weeks to conduct a survey of the rest of the institutions and workers.
Steps to save the economy
For his part, the Director General of the Ministry of Economy and Trade in Lebanon, Dr. Muhammad Abu Haidar, said in an interview with “Iqtisad Sky News Arabia” website, that what is required today is to relaunch the economy, which can only be done by approving a budget that reflects reality and adopts a monetary, financial and economic policy. Harmonious.
He stressed the necessity of conducting an accurate assessment of the damages and losses, and developing a very rapid action plan, provided that the plans include the industrial areas and factories that were damaged, so that they can restore their activity as quickly as possible, which in turn, through their exports of Lebanese goods abroad, constitute a major source for bringing hard currency into the country. .
Abu Haidar also stressed that the post-war stage requires the adoption of a comprehensive reform plan that affects all economic sectors. In addition to the necessity of approving the budget, there must also be speedy election of a president of the republic and the formation of a government capable of implementing reforms immediately, as these steps will contribute In attracting foreign investments, which enhances job creation and accelerates economic growth, he expects that Lebanon will witness in the next stage an influx of hard currencies, especially in the context of reconstruction, whether from expatriates or from international donors.
Abu Haider praised the cohesive monetary policy he followed Bank of Lebanon Its Central Council, led by Acting Governor Wassim Mansouri, adopted a wise policy in managing the exchange rate, which contributed to achieving remarkable monetary stability throughout the war, thus preserving the stability of the Lebanese pound despite the major challenges faced by the economy.
