Welcome to the Fantasy Vibe Check, your place to vent about the highs, lows and head-scratchers from the NBA and fantasy basketball.
Check out who I’m vibing with, and let me know in the comments or @DanTitus about what’s got you feeling a type-of-way about fantasy basketball.
😵💫 I’m confused about Tyrese Haliburton’s home/away splits
Let’s talk about a consensus first-round draft pick who’s struggled to meet expectations in the first month of the season. I’ve fielded many questions about whether Haliburton is a buy-low, someone to trade or a hold. I have him rostered too, and I can say I’m holding onto better days because, while he’s been inconsistent, there’ve been plenty of moments where he’s looked like a first-round talent.
However, I can’t get my head around what’s going on with Haliburton’s success at home versus on the road this season. Take a look at the stark differences between these scenarios:
8 home games: 22.5 points, 9.4 assists, 46.3 FG%, 43.0% 3PT, .617 TS%
10 away games: 12.5 points, 8.3 assists, 31.8 FG%, 22.7% 3PT, .435 TS%
Clearly, something’s amiss with his scoring and efficiency numbers dipping so drastically when he’s away from the Fieldhouse arena. Haliburton was visibly frustrated following the Bucks game on November 22:
There have been rumors that he is possibly still dealing with lingering back issues from last season, but he’s clocking 34 minutes a night and has played in every game this year. So whether that’s the case or not, he’s willingly playing through it. He’s fourth in the league in touches per game, and top 10 in assists and steals — he’s hooping despite his road woes. Still, fantasy managers must decide whether it’s worth riding out, selling or buying low. I can argue all three, but considering he’s fresh off dropping a Hali-esque 34-points (12-23 FG, 9-18 3PT, 1-1 FT) with 13 dimes and three steals on Monday night, I’d be holding or buying after this next home stand to get a better price. He’s figuring it out.
🤔 I’m wondering if the Pistons stick with a timeshare in the frontcourt
Speaking specifically about Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart, Duren started every game he’s been active this season, but Pistons HC JB Bickerstaff hasn’t been shy about dolling out a handful of minutes to Stewart because of his defense and 3-point shooting.
I’m not saying Stewart is good at shooting them, but he’ll at least hoist ‘em. Floor stretching matters nowadays, so it’s another reason to spell Duren. However, it’s time to recognize that Beef Stew isn’t going away. Duren’s counting stats are all down. Duren’s block and assist percentages are up, but the downtick in minutes, shot volume and usage has soured his fantasy value, and I’d be looking to sell.
Taking Monday’s matchup versus the Raptors as an example, Duren put up strong numbers, scoring 13 points with 12 boards, four assists and four blocks in 25 minutes. Stewart finished with nine points (3-6 FG, 3-3 FT), seven boards, two dimes, a steal and three blocks in 23 minutes. Counting stats aside, Stewart’s imprint was all over the game, helping mount a comeback and making plays in crunch time over Duren — an important factor when assessing the significance of Stewart’s role. The Pistons won that game by way of Jaden Ivey, but Stewart’s hustle and grit impacted the game beyond the box score. It’s why I think we should be concerned about having Duren shares.
Look at the splits for the two centers this year:
Jalen Duren
Minutes: 24.8
Points: 8.9
Rebounds: 10.1
Assists: 2.5
Steals: 0.3
Blocks: 1.2
True Shooting Percentage (TS%): 71.3%
Free Throw Percentage (FT%): 69.7%
3-Point Percentage (3P%): 0.0%
Plus/Minus: -43
Isaiah Stewart
Minutes: 22.3
Points: 6.9
Rebounds: 6.9
Assists: 2.1
Steals: 0.6
Blocks: 1.6
True Shooting Percentage (TS%): 60.0%
Free Throw Percentage (FT%): 86.2%
3-Point Percentage (3P%): 30.8%
Plus/Minus: +9
Stewart has been more impactful on a per-min basis in fantasy and, with his edge in stocks and efficiency, he should be rostered in more leagues than he is. Stewart is 24% rostered in 9-cat leagues and ranks 103rd coming into Tuesday. Alternatively, Duren ranks 182 with a 96% rostership. The Pistons are 8-11, but the East is terrible, so they’re hunting for a play-in spot. It’s great to see them competing and winning.
They’ll need just as much from Beef Stew as Duren to keep that going. The margin between the two continues to lessen game over game, so if Stewart is around on waivers, make that move. If you have Duren, I’d try to find a deal after stringing together a few double-doubles.
😡 I’m mad about having to drop Jabari Smith Jr.
I’ve given more than enough time locking Smith into my lineup to put up with the rollercoaster of inconsistency any longer. Despite starting in all 18 games, he ranks 149th in 9-cat leagues and 161 in points leagues while sporting career lows in minutes, usage, points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks — five categories!
That’s far from ideal and with his shot volume decreasing and Tari Eason playing some of the best two-way basketball in the league, Smith’s workload and outlook looks sus. The upside to Smith was his ability to hit 3s, rebound and swat shots. He’ll continue seeing minutes in the high 20s, but with the Rockets having a ton of depth and Smith playing worse than last year, there’s not much appeal to holding him in fantasy.
