The average forecast in the poll conducted by Reuters from the ninth to the 23rd of October, which included 13 economists, indicated that GDP growth would then accelerate to 4.7 percent in 2025-2026 and 5.3 percent by 2026-2027.
In 2023-2024, GDP growth fell to 2.4 percent from 3.8 percent a year ago, according to central bank figures, as a result of global economic crises and the pandemic. corona And the Russian-Ukrainian war, which affected the currency, in addition to the war in the neighboring Gaza Strip, which led to a decline in revenues Suez Canal And slow down Tourism.
And I agreed Egyptian government With the Emirati ADQ Holding Company last February, it agreed to develop the Ras El Hekma area on the Mediterranean coast, for $35 billion, which paved the way in the following month for an agreement for a financial reform package worth eight billion dollars with… International Monetary Fund.
“Economic prospects are improving,” said James Swanston of Capital Economics Egypt“But at a gradual pace,” he said, adding that fiscal policy would remain tight in order to reduce… Budget deficit And reduce the percentage Religion to gross domestic product.
Swanston added, “The benefits of the weakening of the pound are gradually beginning to appear, and while inflation is slowing, it may take until the first quarter of 2025 for prices to fall.” Interest To a level that provides support for families and businesses.”
Inflation decline
The poll was expected to reach Inflation The annual rate in Egyptian cities is 20.4 percent in 2024-2025 and 11.4 percent in 2025-2026.
The inflation rate rose slightly over the past two months to 26.4 percent in September, but it is much lower than the record level of 38 percent recorded in September 2023.
This month, in its report on global economic prospects, the International Monetary Fund expected growth Economy of Egypt By 4.1 percent in 2025.
According to medium-term currency forecasts from analysts, the pound will fall to 50.4 pounds to the dollar by the end of June 2025 and 52.0 by the end of June 2026.
And I stay Central Bank The pound was fixed at 30.85 pounds to the dollar before it was allowed to depreciate within the program with the International Monetary Fund in March 2024. It is now trading at about 48.8 pounds to the dollar.
Analysts estimated that the central bank’s overnight lending rate would fall to 22.25 percent by the end of next June and 14.25 percent by the end of June 2026.
