A newly released poll shines no new light on what to expect on Election Day in Pennsylvania, showing the presidential race as essentially a toss-up in Pennsylvania with less than two weeks to go.
In the contest for the presidency, the new Franklin & Marshall College Poll shows that among likely Pennsylvania voters Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in a dead heat. Trump is slightly ahead in the poll at 50% to 49%.
However, that 1-point lead is well within the poll’s 5-point margin of error.
When registered voters were polled — not just ones who said they were likely to vote — Harris held a slight lead of 48% to 44% when third party candidates were included. That is also within the margin of error of 4.3 points.
Berwood Yost, director of the poll, said the difference in preferences among registered and likely voters is primarily because the partisan, ideological and age profile of these voters is different. He noted the current pool of registered voters is more Republican in terms of their party identity, has fewer moderates ideologically and fewer voters less than 35 years of age.
The poll also shines a light on what voters like about each of the candidates.
More respondents say they believe Harris has better judgment, is more trustworthy and is closer to their views on issues than Trump. But more voters say they believe Trump is better able to handle the economy, though his advantage on this issue has declined since the last survey.
The poll found the top reasons that Harris voters are supporting her candidacy include that she has a strong character, is an advocate for women’s rights, offers an alternative to Trump, they support her political party and they feel she will defend democracy.
Trump supporters said they back him based on his economic policies, their support of the Republican Party and his stance on immigration.
The U.S. Senate race
The latest survey of the U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania likewise shows Republican Dave McCormick and three-term Democratic Sen. Bob Casey virtually tied.
Casey holds just a single-point lead over McCormick at 49% to 48% with likely voters.
When the poll is expanded to all registered voters, Casey’s lead expands.
The poll found that Casey leads McCormick 48% to 41% in a head-to-head matchup, which is slightly smaller than the 9-point advantage he held over McCormick in last month’s poll.
While Casey maintains a larger share of his base than McCormick with 90% of Democrats supporting him, McCormick has improved his support among Republicans by 11 percentage points — up to 86% from 75% — over the last month.
However, Casey continues to do better among independent voters. He leads with those voters 41% to 29%.
Voter fatigue
With Pennsylvania positioned as a critical swing state when it comes to picking the next president, both campaigns have been busy across the state.
Most registered voters in the state reported having been contacted by one or both campaigns, with the most common outreach coming through campaign mailers (86%) and text messages (78%).
For the most part, Pennsylvania voters say they are not happy with being in the spotlight.
The state’s voters say the added attention has been more irritating (61%) than exciting (32%). But it has also made most of them (75%) believe the attention gives them extra responsibility as a voter.
That has led to 94% of respondents saying they are certain they will vote in the upcoming election. A total of 4% said they probably will vote, 2% said the chances are 50-50 and only 1% said they are not going to cast a ballot.
How the poll was conducted
Included in the latest Franklin & Marshall College poll is a detailed explanation of how the survey was conducted:
The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted Oct. 9-20. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College on behalf of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs.
The poll was designed and administered by the staff of the Center for Opinion Research. The data included in this release represent the responses of 794 registered Pennsylvania voters, including 351 Democrats, 326 Republicans and 118 independents.
The sample of registered voters was obtained from Aristotle. All sampled respondents were notified by mail about the survey. Interviews were completed over the phone and online depending on each respondent’s preference.
Survey results were weighted (age, gender, education, geography and party registration) using an algorithm to reflect the known distribution of those characteristics among state voters. Estimates for age, geography and party registration are based on active voters within the Pennsylvania Department of State’s voter registration data.
The sample error for this survey is 4.3 percentage points when the design effects from weighting are considered.
