With apologies to Charles Dickens: it was the best of gerrymanders, it was the worst of gerrymanders.
In the wake of the 2020 census Pennsylvania undertook the constitutionally mandated redrawing of both congressional and state legislative district lines. The processes were different, but each yielded the same result — maps blatantly drawn to advantage Democrats. The new maps were a clear gerrymander, a process named after 19th-century Massachusetts Gov. Elbridge Gerry who drew a congressional district in what appeared to be the shape of a salamander thus giving name to the tactic.
The Pennsylvania Supreme Court, in a clearly unconstitutional move, hijacked the congressional redistricting process taking control from the legislature and turning the map drawing over to a left-wing California university professor. Pennsylvania’s population had grown more slowly than had the population in other states so the commonwealth lost one congressional district resulting in the elimination of a Republican seat in central Pennsylvania.
The remaining districts were drawn to advantage Democrats and in 2022 the gambit worked. Democrats held onto their nine seats while Republicans were reduced to eight seats. Only three districts were competitive in 2022 and Democrats held onto all three.
Again this year those same three seats — one west of Pittsburgh, one in the Lehigh Valley and one in northeastern Pennsylvania — were hotly contested. Added into the mix was the southcentral Pennsylvania seat of Congressman Scott Perry who was targeted by Democrats after having served as chairman of the conservative House Freedom Caucus. Perry survived the challenge, but Democrats lost the Lehigh Valley and northeastern Pennsylvania seats to Republican challengers reducing Democrats to seven seats with ten districts now in the GOP column.
Both the congressional and legislative gerrymanders were supported by Democrat front groups like the deceptively named Fair Districts PA, which claimed their efforts were aimed at undoing past gerrymanders. They pointed to the statewide voter registration numbers in which Democrats at the time held a significant lead but yet failed to gain majority control in the state legislature. However, the fact Democrats are heavily concentrated in urban areas resulted in lopsided registration numbers in those districts while Republicans were more spread out controlling more districts but by smaller margins.
Meanwhile, the legislative redistricting process was also hijacked by the Democrat gerrymander machine. With Democrat Gov. Josh Shapiro empowered to appoint the fifth and deciding vote on the redistricting commission, he too turned to an academic who produced the most gerrymandered map in Pennsylvania legislative history.
The result, in 2022, was that the GOP lost control of the state House of Representatives by a single vote contributing to the legislative gridlock that has gripped Pennsylvania for the past two years. State Senate Republicans were more adept at negotiating the Senate district map and were able to preserve a 28-22 majority.
Unlike the congressional gerrymander, the legislative gerrymander this year worked like a charm. In the Senate, just two seats flipped party control. A Dauphin County (Harrisburg area) seat flipped from Republican to Democrat. The gerrymander, coupled with poor candidate selection by Republicans, produced the Democrat victory. Unexpectedly, however, the GOP flipped a north Philadelphia seat to preserve its 28-22 majority. Competitive seats in Allegheny and Erie counties remained under their respective party control.
The power of the gerrymander was strongest in state legislative races. Recall Democrats have had a one-seat advantage for the past two years. After the expenditure of hundreds of millions of dollars by both political parties not a single one of the 203 state house seats flipped party control. This while Donald Trump and the entire statewide Republican slate sailed to victory.
Contributing to the narrow Democrat majority in the state House has been the ineffectiveness of House Republicans both on the campaign and legislative fronts. While Senate Republicans negotiated a somewhat reasonable redistricted map house negotiators failed completely. And as House Democrats passed a never-ending stream of ultra-left-wing messaging bills these past two years house Republican leaders failed to capitalize on their extremism.
Part of the problem is many stellar Republican House members have moved on to the state Senate which enjoys strong and effective leadership. The House has been hollowed out to the point of being unable to capitalize on the strong performance of the statewide ticket. House Republican Leader Bryan Cutler stepped down from his post following the election. It remains to be seen whether or not the new leadership will be any more effective.
What is clear is that the epic legislative gerrymander that followed the 2020 census has had its effect. Unfortunately, the GOP has missed a golden opportunity to recapture the majority.
Lowman S. Henry is Chairman & CEO of the Lincoln Institute and host of the weekly American Radio Journal and Lincoln Radio Journal. His e-mail address is [email protected].
