And will have to agitation In leadership deliberations to take into account preferred options To IranTaking into account another important point, which is the residence of all the main candidates to assume the position of head of the political bureau of the movement in Qatar.
And he was killed SinwarHe is one of the masterminds of the attack on October 7, 2023, which sparked a fire Gaza warin an exchange of fire with Israeli forces on Wednesday, which is the second time in less than three months that Hamas has lost its leader.
He was assassinated Ismail Haniyeh Former leader of Hamas in Iran In July, most likely by Israel.
When Sinwar assumed leadership of the movement after Haniyeh, Sinwar merged the military and political leadership in Gaza, but this will likely not happen this time.
And mounted Israel Fierce attacks on Hamas more than a year ago, killing thousands of the movement’s fighters and eliminating prominent figures inside and outside Gaza, but it is not yet clear how the movement will emerge after this latest blow.
And he said Khalil Al-Hayya The Hamas leader and one of the candidates to succeed Sinwar said on Friday that the Israeli hostages will not return to their homes until after the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the end of the war.
The most prominent candidates
Hamas has a long history of replacing its leaders quickly, due to the existence of a council Shurathe movement’s highest decision-making body, charged with selecting a new leader.
The Shura Council includes representatives of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Israeli prisons and the Palestinian diaspora, meaning that the new leader will have the authority to enter into ceasefire talks even if he is not in Gaza, where Hamas militants are still holding dozens of Israeli hostages.
According to analysts and a Hamas source, the list of main candidates includes: Khaled Mishal The head of the movement’s Shura Council, Muhammad Darwish, along with Al-Hayya, who is Hamas’s chief negotiator.
The source added that Hamas will have to be notified Qatarwhich plays a major role in the ceasefire talks that have not been successful so far, and other capitals in the region before making their decision.
Reuters quoted Ashraf Abu Al-Hol, editor-in-chief of the Egyptian newspaper Al-Ahram and an expert on Palestinian affairs, as saying that Sinwar’s responsibilities will be distributed among two people, one of whom will supervise military affairs, while the other will manage the movement’s political office, which is responsible for communicating with international parties and shaping its policies.
Abu al-Hol added: “Iran is Hamas’s strongest ally and supplies it with weapons and money, and therefore its blessing is key to determining who will succeed Sinwar.”
He also expected Hamas to adhere to the basic demands in future ceasefire talks, most notably the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the cessation of the war, but it may show more flexibility in some conditions, such as details related to the exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel.
“temporary” leadership
With Sinwar’s death, Hamas’ leadership in Gaza temporarily passed to his Qatar-based deputy, Khalil al-Hayya.
However, the continuation of the war and the difficulty of communication may impose restrictions on the frequency of communication that Al-Hayya can have with those on the ground, which means, according to experts, that leadership duties will be in the hands of the Al-Qassam Brigades, the armed wing of the Hamas movement.
According to a Hamas source who told Reuters, it is expected that Al-Hayya will not face any problems in exercising his role as “the de facto leader of Gaza.”
The source indicated that Al-Hayya maintained good relations with the military wing and was close to Sinwar and Haniyeh.
Akram Atallah, a Palestinian political analyst, expected that the armed wing would respect Al-Hayya’s authorities even while it was abroad, and that its role would increase. Muhammad Al-Sanwar In the armed wing and in Hamas in general.
A Hamas source indicated that Muhammad Al-Sinwar is a veteran commander in the Al-Qassam Brigades who rarely appears in public and has survived several attempts to assassinate him, and his name has been on Israel’s wanted list for a long time.
Muhammad Darwish and Al-Hayya are also seen as close to Tehran, whose support for Hamas will be pivotal to the post-war recovery.
The chances of Khaled Meshaal, the former leader of Hamas, have become unclear due to his troubled relationship with Tehran since his support for the unrest in Syria 2011.
The war broke out in the Gaza Strip after an attack on Israel by gunmen led by Hamas, which resulted in the killing of 1,200 people and the taking of 250 hostages, according to Israeli statistics.
Israel responded with a military operation that has so far, according to health authorities in Gaza, led to the death of more than 42,000 people, the destruction of the Strip, and the displacement of most of its residents.
