We are entering week two at COP29 and progress is still painfully slow and often acrimonious. Too many issues are still open and require closure this coming week. Top priority is to agree a sensible and ambitious ‘New Collective Quantified Goal’ (NCQG) on climate finance.
So far there are no serious commitments from the developed countries to pledge public funding to NCQG. And the G20 meeting in Brazil, expected to find consensus on climate finance, is in danger of ending up in disarray, with President Javier Milei of Argentina threatening to block a G20 joint communique. He is in cahoots with President Trump who is opposed to many of the G20 meeting’s planned conclusions.
This must send a strong message and positive signals to COP29, especially as many of the G20 leaders are not attending the climate summit. That’s the request from the UN climate secretary, Simon Stiell, who said “The G20 summit must send crystal clear global signals that more grant and concessional finance will be available.” Political leadership is now crucial, to do just that and pave the way forward at COP29.
This has been dubbed as the finance COP, but so far it is failing to rise up to this. Finance is also at the centre of getting the ᾽Loss and Damage Fund᾽ and the ᾽Global Goal on Adaptation᾽ (GGA) up and running. Pledges so far are woefully inadequate. It is time for the developed countries to take the lead and deliver, especially the EU, if the US is hamstrung by Trump.
There is also a need to reconfirm the COP28 commitment to triple renewables and double energy efficiency by 2030, as many forecasts show that even though there is strong progress, especially in renewables, without acceleration these targets are in danger of not being met.
Fossil fuels
Grappling with fossil fuels, following the historical decision at COP28 in Dubai to transition away from them, is another outstanding issue. Not many leaders provided any details how they plan to follow this up in their speeches last week.
Bloomberg reports that a fight is building at COP29, led by the EU and the US, over whether countries should recommit to last year’s pledge to ‘transition away’ from fossil fuels. But Saudi Arabia is leading a pushback against any change to the wording agreed at COP28.
With Trump back, and committed to boost US oil and gas production and export, it is not likely that there will be any change.
New initiatives
On the positive side a number of new initiatives have been announced, such as the ‘Global Energy Storage and Grids’ pledge, that jointly with the Utilities for Net-Zero Alliance’ aim to increase investments on grids and renewable power generation capacity, the ‘Hydro4NetZero-LAC’ initiative launched to develop and modernise sustainable hydropower infrastructure, the ‘Hydrogen Declaration’ which aims to decarbonize production of hydrogen, the ‘TerraMed Initiative’ to develop one terawatt of renewable capacity by 2030 around the Mediterranean, and others.
But they need to gain support and momentum over the next few days if they are to stand any chance to progress.
Emissions still on the rise
Emissions are still on the rise and, with global energy demand projected to continue to increase, low-carbon energy sources must grow faster.
Even though progress is being made in energy transition, emission reductions, affordability, energy security, competitiveness, and reliability remain significant challenges.
McKinsey points out that “the global energy mix is changing and renewables are growing, but [without change] reliance on fossil fuels will continue.” Energy transition remains expensive and it is becoming further complicated by conflict.
Without major, new, commitments on finance, energy transition will not progress at the required pace to achieve climate change targets.
Need to move faster
At present most developing countries remain excluded from the benefits that renewable energy can bring. Only through radical collaboration between the developed country public sector and private sectors investment can be accelerated.
There are positive signals but they are in need of serious boost during the coming week. This was echoed by the COP29 president, Mukhtar Babayev, who said “We have made good progress in the first week. We’re feeling positive but there is still much work to do. Success does not depend on one country or party alone it requires all of us.”
COPs usually go to the wire. The fear of not reaching agreement, is what often drives the process to deliver in the end.
Nevertheless, as Simon Stiell said, COP29 negotiations on key issues need to be moving much faster.
Dr Charles Ellinas, @CharlesEllinas, is a councilor at the Atlantic Council
