Although air traffic in the Middle East has not been significantly affected in general, some countries and the entire region are suffering from the repercussions of these tensions and the existing challenges they bring, with locations severely affected by the unrest, leading to temporary suspensions of air traffic as a result of the exchange of missiles and threats. Military forces in a number of areas, especially over the skies of Lebanon and neighboring countries, in light of the Israeli strikes.
With these strikes, many airlines are forced to suspend their flights to the Middle East, in light of the escalating risks.
Before the recent escalation of tensions, some skies in the region, such as those over Yemen, Libya and Syria, were constantly under threat, requiring airlines to adopt alternative routes to avoid them. With the outbreak of recent conflicts, Lebanese airspace has been added to the list of troubled areas, while Jordanian airspace oscillates between opening and sometimes temporary closure based on the political and military situation.
These restrictions contribute to increased operational costs for airlines and limit their options. But despite the challenges, Arab airlines are expected to end the year 2024 with performance exceeding previous levels Covid-19 pandemic.
Expectations indicate that Arab companies will witness growth in the number of flights and seats, which indicates the strength of the sector and its ability to attract travelers. This response reflects the resilience of airlines in the face of ongoing tensions.
While this comes at a time when airlines are experiencing other difficulties related to the shortage of aircraft due to delays in deliveries from manufacturers. High fuel costs also represent a major challenge, as operational expenses constitute a large portion of the budget. Companies must adapt to changing conditions, which requires re-evaluating operating strategies and adjusting courses.
Limited effect
In this context, the Secretary-General of the Arab Air Transport Association, Abdel-Wahab Tuffaha, told “Sky News Arabia” that air traffic in the Arab world has not been significantly affected, with the exception of some locations affected by tensions, adding that transient tensions in some countries sometimes lead to a temporary cessation of traffic. Flights result from the exchange of rockets and missiles, but in general, the effect remains limited.
Tuffaha pointed out that Arab airlines are expected to end the year 2024 with a performance exceeding 2019, the last normal year before the Covid-19 pandemic, by 12 percent, compared to a growth of only 8 percent for international airlines. As for Arab airports, they are expected to achieve a growth of 22 percent compared to 2019, compared to only about 4 percent globally, which reflects the strength of Arab airlines and their ability to attract travelers across continents.
He explained that Arab airlines now cover all continents of the world, and although modifying flight routes as a result of tensions increases the operational cost, this does not reflect on passengers, stressing that modifying routes to avoid areas of tension is not a new matter, as it has been done since 2011. To avoid flying over countries experiencing unrest.
Regarding fleets, Tuffaha explained that Arab airlines have one of the youngest fleets in the world, as the average age of aircraft in 2019 was about 7.2 years, and currently the average exceeds 8 years. He pointed out that the self-growth of airlines is compensated by extending the life of operating aircraft, while expansionary growth is subject to factors such as demand for specific models and the carrying capacity of current aircraft.
In the end, Tuffaha stressed that Arab airlines are able to compete thanks to their modern fleets and strong infrastructure, which allows them to expand into new markets while maintaining operating efficiency in existing markets.
Good turnout
In a related context, Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Emirates Airlines, Adel Al Redha, said that the past two years have witnessed a good demand for travel and transportation of goods, especially in the cargo section, as the demand for travel is increasing, especially in business class, which reflects the use of airports. Dubai by visitors, tourists and businessmen.
Al Reda added in statements to Sky News Arabia that the occupancy rate on Emirates Airlines exceeds 80 percent, which is a good percentage this season. With the receipt of new aircraft from Airbus, new flights will be opened and the number of flights will increase compared to the previous year, especially with the introduction of more aircraft into service after the pandemic period.
He explained that when these aircraft enter service after performing the necessary maintenance, the occupancy rate will increase. He stressed that the current problem is not the number of orders or the companies’ ability to absorb them, but rather the inability of manufacturers to deliver the agreed-upon aircraft, even those for which contracts were previously signed. He pointed out that there are ongoing discussions with two companies to accelerate the delivery process of Boeing aircraft.
Al-Rida pointed out that the main problem lies in the lack of the fleet required to facilitate flights, which negatively affects the revenues and expansion plans of airlines.
Emirates Airlines began dealing with this delay by extending the service life of existing aircraft, which led to bearing the cost of modernizing the cabins of these aircraft, which is estimated at approximately $4 billion, which will be invested over the next three years.
He explained that the cost of fuel is considered the largest factor in operational expenses, as it amounts to about 30-35 percent of total expenses. There are several programs aimed at reducing the risks of consuming or purchasing fuel, with a permanent team that assesses these risks and takes the necessary steps to reduce them.
He pointed out that the aviation sector is one of the sectors most affected by changes such as weather and political conditions, which forces airlines to adapt to changing conditions, such as the inability to use certain airspace, which requires changing some routes or increasing fuel quantities, which affects expenses.
He stressed that these challenges are part of the nature of the work of airlines, noting that the inability to reach some destinations due to circumstances negatively affects revenues and makes it difficult to achieve financial plans drawn up in advance.
The effect of tensions
In turn, Dr. Nadine Itani, Professor of Aviation Management at the University of Surrey, indicated in exclusive statements to the “Iqtisad Sky News Arabia” website that 9 percent of global air traffic between the West and the East passes through Middle Eastern airports.
She added that Middle East regionBefore the start of the war on Gaza, it was suffering from major restrictions on its airspace, as the airspaces over Yemen, Sudan, Libya, Syria, and Iraq were closed, which forced air carriers to take alternative routes to avoid the closed airspace.
She explained that the current situation is witnessing the addition of Lebanese airspace to the list of closed areas, in addition to Jordanian airspace, which is witnessing opening in some periods and closing in other periods, based on weather conditions and field military developments.
Itani pointed out that the current escalation and military news related to the United States sending missiles and the presence of warships is negative news for airlines and safety agencies responsible for ensuring the safety of the air climate.
She also explained that airlines coming from Europe and America to Asia have two air corridors, the first over Azerbaijan and the second over EgyptThis affects its air options, given the availability of only two corridors.
She stressed that the impact on air transport in the short term, as a result of the presence of conflict zones, will negatively affect transport operations, as the uses of airports will be limited to evacuating or receiving humanitarian aid only. This situation causes losses to airports that suffer from crises and wars, along with the loss of air communication with the rest of the countries of the world, which results in major economic repercussions as a result of the fleet not operating.
In addition, insurance companies in conflict areas have imposed some measures on… Airlinessuch as not being present in specific places due to tensions, which leads to increased costs for all airlines in the region, or which use the airspace in the region as a longer air route, which requires the use of more fuel. These matters illustrate the negative repercussions on airlines.
In general, faced Aviation industry The Middle East region faces multiple challenges as a result of escalating geopolitical tensions. While companies are demonstrating resilience and adaptability, continued disruption remains a major concern.
The current situation requires new strategies to manage risks and restore sector stability to ensure continuity of operations and efficient performance in global markets.
