PHILADELPHIA — The operative phrase for Phillies batters in Sunday’s Game 2 of the National League Division Series had nothing to do with kvetching about sunglasses and shadows.
Instead, it was the admonition, time and again, to “control the zone.” Rob Thomson said it before and after the 7-6 classic to even the series with the New York Mets. Home run hero Bryce Harper cited it as the change from five lifeless innings of offense to a series-changing explosion. Kyle Schwarber preached it to media and around the batting cage.
As much as anything else, the Phillies swung at too many pitches outside of the zone in Game 1, the trait that probably most triggered memories of the last two postseason games in South Philadelphia from last fall’s Arizona implosion. Controlling the zone against Mets relievers Sunday was part of getting them back in the game.
“I think we’ve just got to understand swinging at strikes, understanding that we control the zone, us against the ball and try to keep going,” Harper said.
Swing and miss is a fact of life for offenses and a necessary part of the aggression that has fueled 20 playoff wins the last three years. But it has to be in balance.
The Philles swung and missed at 25 pitches in each of the first two games in this NLDS, less each game than the 30 swing-and-misses induced by Zack Wheeler’s virtuoso first seven innings. Of the Phillies’ whiffs, 13 in Game 1 and 14 in Game 2 were on pitches out of the zone. It would surprise no one that the leader in the clubhouse is Nick Castellanos, the Game 2 walk-off supplier, with seven.
The Phillies this season were seventh in baseball in out-of-zone swing percentage, per FanGraphs, at 33.5%. They were 24th in baseball at out-of-zone contact (64.9), thus a tendency to swing at a lot of balls and not hit many of them, relative to their peers.
The chase rate tracks recent trends in offensive production and frustration. Their O-swing percentage in 2023 was 34.1 percent, fifth in baseball. It fell to just 10th in the first half of the season, at 32.3, then ramped up to 35.3 percent, the highest chase rate in baseball, for the second half. (In the small sample of last year’s postseason, their O-swing dipped to 32.8 percent, but their out-of-zone contact cratered to 53.6 percent, a reflection of a more skilled population of pitchers.)
What the Phillies can control is what pitches they swing at, how hard they work a pitcher like Luis Severino, who got 15 outs from the start Sunday on 64 pitches. Anecdotally, that means working three walks off Mets relievers Sunday, two of whom scored runs, the other Harper extending the game to get to Castellanos.
“I think that there’s been a lot of talk, not only publicly but in our clubhouse, about getting back in the strike zone, controlling the strike zone on both sides of the ball,” Thomson said. “If you do that, you’re going to win games. And I think they’re making a conscious effort, for sure.”
That looks different for each player. On Trea Turner’s two-out single that preceded back-to-back homers in the sixth, he expanded the zone by fouling off two sweepers away, leading to Severino hanging one that he singled to kickstart the rally. For Alec Bohm, who struggled and was benched for Game 2, his ability to make contact out of zone helps him lock in, though he’s swung at five pitches out of the zone in seven plate appearances. Let’s not forget that Schwarber’s gargantuan blast to start Game 1 came in an at-bat off Kodai Senga that began with Schwarber whiffing on a slider that nearly bounced off the plate.
The Phillies are one of baseball’s best teams this year at making contact in the strike zone – 86.9 percent, eighth in MLB. It’s about finding and executing on the right pitches consistently.
“I think the challenge for us is that if we can be aggressive where we want to be, I think that’s going to be plus for us,” Schwarber said before Game 2. “… I think that’s the way we have to attack it. And chase happens, right? It’s part of the game. Stuff is great now. Everyone throws great stuff. But if we’re able to be … selective, to where you want to be – no one’s going in the room saying, ‘don’t chase, don’t chase, don’t chase.’ We’re talking about where we want to be in the zone.”
