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Flu and COVID expected to be mild this winter

Fall is officially here, bringing with it all of the delights of the season.

Football is back, leaves are beginning to change, Halloween and Thanksgiving and Christmas are just around the corner. The air is cooler and crisper, drawing cozy sweaters back out of the closet.

And soon, the cacophony of sniffles, sneezes and coughs will echo far and wide.

That’s right, along with all the great things about autumn, the season has its bad side. Not the least of which is the illness that will likely soon seem to be everywhere.

Cases of flu, COVID-19 and RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) tend to spike as the weather cools. And while local medical experts expect this season to be mild, they’re still encouraging people to protect themselves.

“I don’t want to jinx it and I don’t want people to get complacent, but the Centers for Disease Control said they expect hospitalizations to be lower than last year,” said Dr. Rutul Dalal, medical director for infectious diseases at Penn State Health St. Joseph Medical Center.

What’s the difference?

Flu, COVID and RSV are highly infectious diseases that attack the respiratory system.

While they have similar symptoms, they are not the same. And each has its own distinct treatment.

In general, Dalal said, COVID tends to mostly impact the respiratory system. It causes coughing, shortness of breath, fatigue and a sore throat.

Flu and COVID expected to be mild this winter
Dr. Rutul Dalal, medical director for infectious diseases at Penn State Health St. Joseph Medical Center. (Courtesy of Penn State Health St. Joseph)

With RSV, he said, a runny nose and wheezing typically accompanies other symptoms.

And if it’s flu, a patient will likely experience severe fatigue, fever, aches and gastrointestinal symptoms.

“A  lot of the symptoms overlap, so the only way to tell what you have for certain is to take tests,” Dalal said. “When in doubt, get tested.”

What’s in store this season?

Dr. Debra Powell, chief of the division of infectious disease at Reading Hospital, said all three diseases are expected to have relatively mild seasons.

There was a bit of a spike with COVID cases right before kids headed back to school, but the numbers quickly went back down. Powell said that, based on past experiences, she expects another spike in January and February.

Debra L. Powell (Photo Courtesy Reading Hospital)
Dr. Debra Powell, chief of the division of infectious disease at Reading Hospital (Courtesy of Reading Hospital)

For the most part, she said, the current dominant strain of COVID is causing mild, cold-like symptoms.

But that doesn’t mean it’s not still dangerous, particularly for people with high risk factors such as cancer or other chronic diseases, weakened immune systems, obesity or advanced age.

“Compared to last year, it doesn’t look like it’s going to be as bad,” Dalal said. “But the sobering fact is, even last year COVID still killed more than 48,000 people in the U.S.”

As for the flu, Powell said it doesn’t appear this season will be particularly bad.

“I have not heard anything about it being an abnormal flu season,” she said.

Dalal said much the same, reporting that St. Joseph is expecting only eight or nine hospitalizations from flu per 100,000 people.

“At this point in time, it does look like it’s going to be a little bit milder than last year,” he said.

Dalal and Powell agreed that RSV will also likely be mild, a far cry from a few years ago when medical experts were warning of a “tri-demic” when all three disease were expected to explode.

“I think things will fall with the normal seasonal patterns, with a bump in early fall and in January and then coming down in the spring,” Dalal said. “I think all three are going to be a little less than they were last year.”

Staying prepared

Despite predictions of a mild season, Powell and Dalal said it’s important for people to protect themselves — particularly those with high risk factors.

And that means getting vaccinated.

“Vaccination definitely plays a key role in preventing hospitalizations,” Dalal said.

Powell said people should get vaccinated for all three of the diseases, pointing out that a vaccination for one doesn’t protect against either of the other two. Like Dalal, she said that while vaccinations don’t preclude someone from getting the disease, they do help prevent severe illness and hospitalization.

“The benefit to the community is the more people who get the vaccine the fewer people who get really, really sick and end up in the hospital,” Powell said. “That helps the hospital because we need room for other people.”

Powell said that during the worst days of the pandemic Reading Hospital had up to 200 COVID patients, which put a lot of stress on the hospital. She said the hospital can manage 10 or 12 cases, but a big boom of hospitalizations would again stress the system.

According to Powell, everyone should get this year’s flu vaccine and the latest COVID booster. They can be taken at the same time and become fully effective in about two weeks, she said.

The RSV vaccine is being recommended for anyone over 75 (or over 65 with risk factors) but can be taken by anyone who wants a level of protection. Infants under 1 are also recommended to get the RSV vaccination.

Powell said people should schedule their vaccination appointments as soon as possible.

“The time to get the vaccine is now,” she said. “It’s a couple weeks before the season really starts. By December we’ll already be getting cases.”

While Dalal agreed that people should start thinking about getting vaccinated now, he said it’s never too late to get a shot.

“Even if you get it in December or January, you should still get it,” he said. “Love thy neighbor — with these vaccines you’re able to protect people in the community and your family as well.

“I think it is extremely important for all of us to do the right thing for ourselves and for others.”

Powell said people shouldn’t be scared of vaccinations.

“These are safe, so don’t be afraid,” she said.

Along with vaccinations, people can protect themselves from flu, COVID and RSV in other, simpler ways.

“Wash your hands, use basic social etiquette, try to be away from people who are sick and, if you’re sick, isolate yourself,” Dalal said.

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