But this happy ending to the US election race does not prevent the state of anxiety and anticipation that dominates most leaders and politicians in the world after Trump’s “triumphant return” to power.
In Asia and Latin America, leaders are preparing for a second Trump term, and these leaders are realistic and decisive in their belief in their ability to deal with Trump, who was a president in the past and will be a president in the future.
As for European leaders, they are less certain, and are divided between two groups. The first demands that Europe be fortified against Trump, based on the instinct that there is a strategy based on seeking to achieve strategic independence from Washington.
This team is led by French President Emmanuel Macron.
The second group includes leaders such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban who believe they can present themselves as excellent partners for the United States in its new approach to transatlantic security.
In an analysis published on the British website of the Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House, under the title “The elections showed that Trumpism is here to stay,” said Dr. Leslie Vinjamuri, director of the program. US And the Americas at the Institute said that over the past eight years, world leaders and foreign policy experts have debated whether President Trump was the cause of radical change in the United States or merely a symptom of strong trends in the American body politic, increasing inequality and job losses in the manufacturing sector, which affects… On a segment of non-college-educated white male voters who feel left behind, taking on old elites and claiming that society is in desperate need of a new kind of political leadership.
And in the state Trump First, many treated him as an exception, not an accident, and this means that foreign leaders assumed that his policies might disappear after his defeat in the next elections, and short-term strategies to circumvent Trump became a good bet, on the basis that the next president would return to the usual American agenda, which includes freedom Trade, market access, strong alliances, a commitment to combating climate change, strengthening nuclear deterrence, and deepening transatlantic ties, so Washington’s allies can wait out the Trump years.
Indeed, Trump lost the 2020 elections and the Democratic president came Joe Biden He affirmed his commitment to multilateralism, transatlantic partnership, and support for Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression, confirming that Trump’s policies were abnormal and that America had returned to its normal policies.
Despite this, Biden maintained many of Trump’s policies, including tariffs on many imports and unilateral withdrawal from… Afghanistan.
The question that arises now is: What will Trump begin his new term with?
There are many things he has, the most prominent of which is adopting a strict policy against immigration, including deporting illegal residents from the country. This may lead to an increase in the cost of labor in the United States and thus increase inflation. He may also implement the so-called second version of the ban on Muslims entering the United States and will continue to do so. Immigrants are constantly under attack, branded as intruders or criminals.
Trump could also adopt punitive policies against countries that do not cooperate in the fight Illegal immigration Foremost among them is Mexico, which may face the imposition of duties on its exports or a strict review of the free trade agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada in 2026 if it does not show a strong desire to cooperate on the immigration issue.
In his first 100 days, Trump could also impose duties on most of his country’s imports from various countries of the world and increase duties imposed on Chinese products, but it is still difficult to know whether these duties will be merely a tool for bargaining accompanied by conditions or whether they will escalate to a new level of protectionist policies. .
What is most worrying is the United States’ Asian allies, especially Taiwan and South KoreaJapan It is unclear how Trump will deal with the North Korean nuclear threat.
Therefore, the question will remain whether the United States under his leadership will provide sufficient nuclear deterrent to North Korea to prevent South Korea and Japan from developing their own nuclear weapons to confront the North Korean threat.
In Europe, relations with America are expected to reach the brink of abyss during Trump’s second term.
It is highly likely that he will impose customs duties on… European products With the aim of reducing the US trade deficit with the European Union, it may also reduce US commitments to European security, which represents the greatest concern for Europeans.
Trump often says that he believes that Europe is not paying a fair share of the cost of its alliance with the United States. He also does not believe in the necessity of continuing the war in Ukraine, and certainly does not believe in its continuation at the expense of the American taxpayer, and he seems ready to conclude an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war, often at the expense of Ukraine’s rights.
Although European leaders realize this, they are not prepared for the consequences. With Europe itself divided on these issues, the election of Trump will lead to more of these divisions, although there is hope that this will lead to its unity.
The basis for all of Trump’s potential actions is a radically different understanding of America’s role in the international system and his rejection of the idea that the benefits of multilateral alliances and relations outweigh their costs.
On the contrary, he believes that the countries of the world have developed at America’s expense, and now those countries can and must pay their fair share of the burden of this development.
This means that Europe and the rest of the world must deal with the fact that… Trumpism It is here to stay, and therefore attempts to circumvent it and buy time until it ends will not be enough to deal with the United States nor adapt to a new international order that Trump envisions.
