The Washington Post presented 6 possible scenarios for the scene in which Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris compete to reach the White House.
Scenario 1: Harris wins through “blue wall” states
This appears to be the most likely scenario, according to polls conducted by The Washington Post.
The reason is that Harris currently has a slight lead in 4 of the seven swing states: Michigan Nevada, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which puts them on track to obtain 276 electoral votes, knowing that 270 votes are required.
All Harris needs in this case are the “blue wall” states, that is, where the Democrats have a majority, which are the three northern states, to which the second congressional district is added. nebraskaThe candidate leads by about 10 points, giving her exactly 270 votes.
The second scenario: the possibility of Trump winning across the East
The Trump campaign is betting on 3 states in the East: Georgia and…North Carolina And Pennsylvania.
Opinion polls reduced his chances in Pennsylvania to less than one point in favor of Harris, although he maintained a slight lead in Georgia, and he may expand his slight lead in North Carolina.
If Trump can cross this path, his gains among black voters may play an important role, as Georgia and North Carolina have the largest black populations among the swing states, and the number of black voters in the state is Pennsylvania Nearly 10 percent too.
Trump has questioned Harris’ black identity, falsely claiming that she recently adopted it, and he and his allies have suggested that his prosecution experience may broaden his appeal among black men who feel unfairly targeted by the justice system.
The third scenario: Trump and the Sun Belt path
The other, more logical path for Trump would pass mostly through the southern half of the country, but with a northern state to add to it.
It has been presented by opinion polls Sunbelt statesespecially Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
But the downside to this path is that it requires Trump to win more states, because even if he wins these four states, he will have to bring in one of the northern states.
If Trump fares better in the Sun Belt, it may be mainly because their voters tend to be more diverse.
The four states mentioned are all more diverse than their northern neighbors, according to “The Washington Post“, Polls show that Trump is making real gains with… Black voters And Latinos.
The three states in which Trump is leading are also states that were reliably Republican until recently, with Arizona and Georgia having not turned blue before 2020 since the 1990s, and North Carolina turning blue only once since the 1970s in 2008.
From there, the question becomes what northern state can Trump add?
Wisconsin was the closest state he lost in 2020 (0.6 points), but close polls in Pennsylvania suggest he’s the closest there.
Scenario Four: A major victory for Harris
It is very possible that Harris will prevail because her lead in the national opinion polls is currently two points, which will allow her to sweep the seven swing states, but if the polls are inaccurate as they were in 2012 when they underestimated the victory of former President Barack Obama, then she will win by 5 points. Swing states At least and about 300 electoral votes.
Fifth scenario: A big win for Trump
If state-by-state polls are as wrong as they were in 2016, Trump will win every swing state except Nevada, and if they are as wrong as they were in 2020, Trump will win all seven swing states.
Either way, the Electoral College margin will look very similar to what it did in 2016, when Trump won 306 electoral votes.
But Trump may attribute this to his victory in the popular vote this time, in contrast to his loss by two points 8 years ago.
Sixth scenario: tie
Unlikely, but theoretically, we could still have a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College.
This may happen when Harris wins Michigan and Pennsylvaniawisconsin With her losses in the remainder and in Nebraska’s 2nd District, where she has a large lead in the polls.
Assuming Harris wins as expected in Nebraska’s 2nd District, the most likely scenario for a tie is for Trump to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina or Georgia, without winning any other swing states.
At this point, we will have what is called “Emergency elections“, where the House of Representatives elects the president by casting one vote for each state’s delegation, and the party that controls the largest number of delegations will depend on the results of the 2024 elections, but the odds of a Republican victory are greater at the present time.
